Northern Lights Forecast: Who Can See the Aurora Tonight

It depends on two things: how strong the geomagnetic activity is (NOAA's planetary Kp forecast, shown live on this page) and how far you are from the auroral oval (your geomagnetic latitude). Northern Alaska sees aurora on most clear nights; the northern tier of the lower 48 — North Dakota, Minnesota, Montana, Maine — needs about Kp 4; the mid-latitudes need Kp 6–7; the Gulf Coast and the Southwest need a G4–G5 storm. Enter your ZIP above for tonight's verdict.

Roughly: Kp 1–2 for Fairbanks, Kp 4 for North Dakota, Minnesota, Maine and Montana, Kp 5 for Michigan, Wisconsin, Washington, Idaho, Vermont and New Hampshire, Kp 6 for New York, Pennsylvania, Oregon, Wyoming, South Dakota and Iowa, Kp 7 for most of the mid-latitudes, Kp 8–9 for the South, Texas, and the Southwest. These are thresholds for a display low on the northern horizon from a dark site; add about 2 Kp for it to be overhead.

Alaska by a wide margin, then North Dakota, Minnesota, Montana, Maine, Michigan's Upper Peninsula, Wisconsin, Washington and Idaho. The common factor is a high geomagnetic latitude — the eastern US is magnetically "further north" than the West at the same latitude because the geomagnetic pole sits over northern Canada.

Yes. Solar cycle 25 reached its maximum in 2024–2025, and the declining phase that follows has historically produced the largest individual storms (the March 1989 and October 2003 events both came after solar maximum). Expect several G2–G3 storms and a real chance of G4+ events through 2026 and 2027.

Around the equinoxes — September–October and March–April — when geomagnetic storms are statistically most frequent and nights are long. For the far north, deep winter adds the most darkness and the clearest air. Summer is the weakest season in the lower 48 because of short nights.

Usually 10 pm–2 am local time, with the strongest substorms near local magnetic midnight. Displays come in waves; a quiet half-hour does not mean the show is over.

NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center issues a 3-day planetary Kp forecast in 3-hour slots, a G-scale (G1–G5) for geomagnetic storms, and the OVATION model, a 30–90 minute nowcast of where aurora is likely overhead. This page reads all three directly from NOAA in your browser and compares them with each state's Kp threshold and tonight's cloud cover.

Faint light does not trigger the eye's color receptors, so a weak display reads as a pale arc or haze. Cameras and phone night modes integrate light for several seconds and show the true green (oxygen at ~100 km) and red (oxygen higher up). Strong storms are vividly colored to the naked eye.