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Soil temperature at two inches, read for your ZIP code

Morel Mushroom Forecast: Soil Degree Days by State

Morels come up on the soil, not the calendar. This reads the soil temperature where you walk, adds it up the way the published predictor does, and shows it against the 410 degree day threshold, day by day for a week.

Your week

Read the soil where you hunt

Enter a ZIP code. The forecast reads hourly soil temperature at 6 cm for that spot, which is 2.4 inches and the depth the published threshold is measured at, sums every degree above freezing over the last 20 days, counts the rain events behind it, and rates each of the next seven days Dormant, Waking, Close, Good, Prime.

410
Soil degree days to the threshold
accumulated above 32 F over the trailing 20 days, measured at two inches
50
States with a window and a rated week
Florida starts earliest, about February 20, and Alaska latest, about July 25
60
Findings quoted word for word
from 16 papers, extension bulletins and agency pages, each one linked
7
Days rated per ZIP
each with its degree days, its reason and the points behind it
The research

The soil tells you, and it has a number

Jeanne Mihail put soil and air temperature loggers in Missouri morel ground and worked out what the fruiting followed. The answer was accumulated temperature rather than any single warm afternoon: add up every degree above 32 F that the soil holds over a stretch of days and the fruiting arrives at a repeatable total. For a 20 day window at two inches that total is 410. Air temperature accumulates faster and has its own figure for the same window, which the forecast keeps as its second reading.

That is the whole base of the score. Everything below either confirms it or caps it. The floor comes from the Puget Sound Mycological Society, which puts a soil temperature under which nothing happens at 40 F, and the decay at the top end comes from the same work that set the threshold: the optimum is narrow, and well past it the fruiting is behind you rather than ahead.

Soil degree days

sets the base, 8 to 80

Daily mean soil temperature above 32 F summed over the trailing 20 days, read at 6 cm, against the published threshold of 410.

The sources behind it
  • “The best predictor of first yellow morel appearance was the accumulated average soil temperature above freezing (32 °F) over the preceding twenty days. However, first yellow morel appearance seems to be delayed beyond the prediction when winters have been especially warm.”

    Predicting the Spring Morel Season The whole model rests here. Not a single soil reading on one afternoon: the sum of daily mean soil temperature above freezing over the preceding twenty days, measured at two inches. The published threshold for that sum is 410 degree days Fahrenheit.

  • “Winter chilling, as well as spring soil warming, are both important in determining the when we will first see early spring morels.”

    Predicting the Spring Morel Season Soil warming is necessary and not sufficient. The same paper publishes four thresholds, 510 and 660 degree days for air over twenty and thirty days and 410 and 520 for soil, which is why a soil reading is preferred here and an air reading is the fallback.

Past the optimum

the base falls away above 1.6 times the threshold

The response is a band. Well past the optimum the flush is over, so the base decays instead of climbing.

The sources behind it
  • “Fruiting season length was positively correlated with soil warming, suggesting that a narrow range of optimum soil temperatures favour the explosive production of fruit bodies.”

    Spatial and temporal patterns of morel fruiting The response is a band, not a staircase. Past the optimum the flush ends, which is why the score here peaks and then falls instead of climbing with every warm day.

The 40 degree floor

caps the day at 14

A seven day mean soil temperature under 40 F holds the day at Dormant however the degree days read.

The sources behind it
  • “Eastern Washington morels, the subject of this article, need at least a consistent ground and air temperature of +40ºF to start fruiting. The timing of the fruiting varies from year to year, sometimes starting as early as March and in other years as late as mid May.”

    Spore Prints 501: morels of eastern Washington A floor, in a mycological society bulletin, and the spread of start dates around it. Below a consistent 40 degrees the forecast does not rate a day above Dormant however the degree days read.

Snow still on it

caps the day at 18

Measurable snow depth holds the day down. Snowmelt comes first in the sequence.

The sources behind it

Air degree days

the base when no soil reading comes back

The same trailing 20 day sum on air temperature, against the published air threshold of 510 rather than 410.

The sources behind it
  • “Winter chilling, as well as spring soil warming, are both important in determining the when we will first see early spring morels.”

    Predicting the Spring Morel Season Soil warming is necessary and not sufficient. The same paper publishes four thresholds, 510 and 660 degree days for air over twenty and thirty days and 410 and 520 for soil, which is why a soil reading is preferred here and an air reading is the fallback.

The sources

  • Yellow Morel (Common Morel), Morchella esculentoides Missouri Department of Conservation. MDC Field Guide, 2026. A state wildlife agency on what a true morel looks like, what it grows under, and what the dangerous lookalikes look like instead.
  • Big Red False Morel, Gyromitra caroliniana Missouri Department of Conservation. MDC Field Guide, 2026. The false morel in the agency’s own words, including the two sentences that settle the "but I know someone who eats them" argument.
  • Accumulated Growing Degree Day maps USA National Phenology Network. USA-NPN, 2026. The national phenology maps, and the definition that keeps their accumulation from being confused with the trailing twenty day sum this forecast uses.
  • Status of Spring: the First Leaf and First Bloom Indices USA National Phenology Network. USA-NPN, 2026. The national index of when spring arrives, built on the leaf out of lilacs and honeysuckles and checked against volunteer observations.
  • Special Forest Products USDA Forest Service. USDA Forest Service, national programme page, 2026. The federal definition that puts mushrooms inside the special forest products programme, which is the reason a national forest district office is the office to ring.
  • 36 CFR 261.6, Timber and other forest products Code of Federal Regulations. Electronic Code of Federal Regulations, title 36, chapter II, part 261, 2026. The prohibition every national forest permit is written against. It is the governing section, not the timber sale subparts the blogs cite.
  • A 19-year longitudinal assessment of gyromitrin-containing (Gyromitra spp.) mushroom poisonings in Michigan Vohra, V.; Dirks, M.; Bonito, G.; James, T.; Carroll, A.. Toxicon 247: 107825, 2024. Nineteen years of poison centre calls from one state, which is the closest thing to a real denominator on how false morel poisoning actually goes.
  • Morel Mushrooms (FNH-00020) University of Alaska Fairbanks Cooperative Extension Service. UAF Cooperative Extension Service, 2021. The only extension publication written for a state whose morel season is in high summer and runs on last year burns.
  • Common Wild Edible Fungi in Illinois University of Illinois Extension. University of Illinois Extension handout, 2019. Species, month and habitat on one line each, which is what separates the black morel calendar from the yellow morel calendar inside a single state.
  • Predicting the Spring Morel Season Mihail, J.D.. McIlvainea 23: 53 to 60, 2014. Five springs of dated first-appearance records for yellow morels in north-central Missouri, tested against accumulated air and soil temperature over trailing windows. The paper publishes the thresholds this forecast uses.
  • Spore Prints 501: morels of eastern Washington Puget Sound Mycological Society. Spore Prints, bulletin of the Puget Sound Mycological Society, no. 501, 2014. A mycological society bulletin that names a consistent ground and air temperature morels need before they fruit, and the elevation march that follows.
  • 2011 NAMA Toxicology Committee Report: North American Mushroom Poisonings Beug, M.W.. North American Mycological Association, 2011. The national case report series, which is also the source for the one thing that goes wrong with true morels.
  • Spatial and temporal patterns of morel fruiting Mihail, J.D.; Bruhn, J.N.; Bonello, P.. Mycological Research 111(3): 339 to 346, 2007. Fruiting onset, season length and abundance across years and plots, which separates what sets the timing from what sets the yield.
  • Ecology and Management of Morels Harvested From the Forests of Western North America Pilz, D.; McLain, R.; Alexander, S.; Villarreal-Ruiz, L.; Berch, S.; Wurtz, T.L.; Parks, C.G.; McFarlane, E.; Baker, B.; Molina, R.; Smith, J.E.. USDA Forest Service General Technical Report PNW-GTR-710, 161 p., 2007. The federal synthesis on morels: moisture, snowmelt, elevation, aspect, latitude, fire severity, host trees and the toxicology of the lookalikes. Most statements name the prior author they rest on, and those attributions are kept inside the quotes.
  • Harvesting Morels After Wildfire in Alaska Wurtz, T.L.; Wiita, A.L.; Weber, N.S.; Pilz, D.. USDA Forest Service Research Note PNW-RN-546, 2005. Three seasons of fieldwork in burned interior Alaska, with dated start, peak and end for the fruiting they measured.
  • May is Morel Month in Michigan (Extension Bulletin E-2755) Hallen, H.; Volk, T.; Adams, G.. Michigan State University Extension, 2001. The land-grant bulletin that gives the rate at which the season moves north, and treats the indicator plants as what veteran hunters watch rather than as a measurement.
Rain and moisture

Rain changes how many, not when

The folklore has a warm rain pulling morels out of the ground three days later. What the literature supports is steadier and less dramatic: the temperature sets the timing, and the water that fell over the previous month sets the yield. So this forecast counts rain events over 10 mm in the trailing 30 days and moves the score by a few points either way, rather than putting a date three days after a shower.

Soil moisture is weighted in one direction only. Dry ground holds the fruiting back, and the published work on wetter ground does not agree with itself about the direction, so a wet reading is never allowed to add points here.

Rain events over 10 mm

minus 9 to plus 8

Counted over the trailing 30 days. It moves how many, never when: the timing is the temperature.

The sources behind it
  • “Fruiting onset was inversely correlated with spring air and soil temperatures, whereas abundance was positively correlated with rain events (>10mm) during the 30 d preceding fruiting.”

    Spatial and temporal patterns of morel fruiting This is the sentence that splits the model in two. Temperature sets the date. Rain sets how many. So rain counts here as events over 10 mm in the trailing thirty days, and it moves the yield, never the timing.

  • “For instance, during the years 2001 to 2005 in north-central Missouri, the first day of morel fruiting reliably fell between the 104th and 110th days of the calendar year (mid-April) and total seasonal production was closely correlated with the number of rainfall events of greater than 10 mm during the next 2 weeks”

    Ecology and Management of Morels Harvested From the Forests of Western North America The same 10 mm event threshold from the other direction, and a striking stability in the start date: five straight years inside a six day window in one place. The Forest Service carries this as a personal communication from a five year single location record, which is where its weight stops.

Soil moisture

minus 11 to 0

Volumetric water at 3 to 9 cm. The direction of the effect is contested in the literature, so it only ever takes points away at the dry and the saturated ends.

The sources behind it
The ground

Where to put your feet once the soil is ready

The soil reading tells you which weekend. The hillside is the other half of the hunt, and these four are how to pick it: the host trees, the high ground and the low, last year’s burns, and the plants that leaf out alongside the morels, each with the sentences behind it.

Lilac, mayapple, apple bloom

Shown, not scored

Lilac leaf out is a measured national index, and the early shrubs leafing out around you are a sign the spring morels follow is under way.

The sources behind it
  • “The First Leaf Index is based on the leaf out of lilacs and honeysuckles, which are among the first plants to show their leaves in the spring. This Index is associated with the first leafing of early-spring shrubs and other plants.”

    Status of Spring: the First Leaf and First Bloom Indices Lilac leaf out is a measured national index, so the lilac is worth watching. When the early shrubs leaf out around you, the spring that morels follow is under way, and the soil reading says how far along it is.

  • “The USA-NPN generates daily Accumulated Growing Degree Day (AGDD) maps using a January 1 start date and two base temperatures, 32°F and 50°F.”

    Accumulated Growing Degree Day maps Read this before comparing anything. The national maps accumulate from January 1. Mihail’s threshold is a rolling twenty day sum. Same base temperature, completely different magnitudes, so the 410 here is never checked against a published AGDD map.

  • “Growing degrees days are defined as the number of degrees the average daily temperature exceeds a base temperature, or the temperature below which the organism will remain in dormancy.”

    Accumulated Growing Degree Day maps The definition the forecast computes, word for word as the page prints it.

Host trees

Shown, not scored

Dying elm, living white ash, just dead cottonwood, sycamore, tulip poplar, old apple. Where to walk, which is a different question from when.

The sources behind it
  • “Found especially under dying elms and living white ashes and cottonwoods; also under tulip poplars, oaks, and hickories.”

    Yellow Morel (Common Morel), Morchella esculentoides A state agency on the hosts, and note the asymmetry it asserts: elms dying, ashes and cottonwoods living. That distinction is worth more than the species list.

  • “Weber (1988) reported morels in Michigan as associated with oak-hickory or beech-maple forests, or under sycamore, elm, ash, cottonwood, and apple trees.”

    Ecology and Management of Morels Harvested From the Forests of Western North America Forest types as well as single trees, which is the scale a reader can actually see from the road.

  • “Kuo (2005) listed morels in the Eastern United States as associated with ash, elm, and tulip trees, and often found in old apple orchards.”

    Ecology and Management of Morels Harvested From the Forests of Western North America The old apple orchard, with a citation behind it instead of folklore.

  • “Thompson (1994) found morels with senescent or dying apple trees, just-dead cottonwoods, and especially elms.”

    Ecology and Management of Morels Harvested From the Forests of Western North America Tree health, and how narrow the window is: just dead, not long dead. Which is exactly why this is a timing product.

  • “Massive crops of yellow morels at the bases of dying elms (Thompson 1994, Weber 1988) and extensive fruiting of natural black morels in insect-killed forest (Pilz and others 2004) are two examples.”

    Ecology and Management of Morels Harvested From the Forests of Western North America Two different disturbances feeding two different species. A dying elm for yellow morels, an insect-killed stand for black ones.

  • “Volk and others (1997) theorized that such mass fruiting represents a last-ditch effort to reproduce when the morel’s food source disappears.”

    Ecology and Management of Morels Harvested From the Forests of Western North America Why a dead or dying host matters at all, in one sentence: the fungus is leaving, and it fruits on the way out.

  • “Morchella esculenta – common morel, yellow morel. May. Various habitats including under dead elms and in old apple orchards.”

    Common Wild Edible Fungi in Illinois A species, a month and two habitats on one extension line. The same handout gives the black morel as April to May under dead elms and living ash, so inside one state the black morel runs a few weeks ahead of the yellow.

  • “it fruits in spring, likes recent burn sites, likes a mixed conifer forest as well as cottonwoods, fruits mostly on the east side of the Cascade Crest, and starts low and moves higher in elevation as the season progresses.”

    Spore Prints 501: morels of eastern Washington The whole eastern Washington pattern in one clause: spring, burns, mixed conifer and cottonwood, east side, low to high.

Last year burns

Shown, not scored

Year one after a fire is the year, the red needle zone is the band, and 60 to 80 percent duff consumption is the optimum. The fire maps from last summer are the place to start looking.

The sources behind it

Elevation and aspect

Shown, not scored

Low ground and south faces first, then higher and north-facing. Follow the season uphill and around to the north faces as the weeks go on.

The sources behind it

The season also moves, and at a rate an extension bulletin publishes: the front begins in the south and travels north about a hundred miles a week. That rate is what draws the window on each of the 50 state pages, and the Forest Service synthesis gives the same figure independently.

The state window

minus 55 well outside it, plus 3 in the opening fortnight

Each state window steps north at the published rate of about 100 miles a week. The live soil reading outranks it inside the window.

The sources behind it
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50 states

The usual window, state by state

These bands are drawn from the published rate the season travels north at, anchored on the reference point in each state. They are the starting guess a page makes before it has read anything. Inside those dates the live soil reading outranks them, which is the point of the tool above.

StateUsual windowMiddle of itHost trees to walk
AlabamaMarch 1 to April 10Marchdying elm, living white ash, tulip poplar
AlaskaJune 5 to July 25Juneburned black spruce, birch, aspen
ArizonaMarch 25 to June 15Mayponderosa pine duff, burned conifer, cottonwood along water
ArkansasMarch 10 to April 22Marchdying elm, living white ash, just dead cottonwood
CaliforniaMarch 1 to July 1Aprilburned conifer, cottonwood, oak woodland
ColoradoApril 20 to July 1Mayburned conifer, aspen, cottonwood along water
ConnecticutApril 15 to May 22Maydying elm, living white ash, old apple
DelawareApril 2 to May 6Apriljust dead cottonwood, sycamore, tulip poplar
FloridaFebruary 20 to March 31Marchdying elm, sycamore, river bottom hardwood
GeorgiaMarch 5 to April 15Marchtulip poplar, dying elm, living white ash
HawaiiRated on the soil readingYear round forestkoa and ohia forest, introduced hardwood
IdahoApril 10 to July 5Mayburned conifer, cottonwood, grand fir duff
IllinoisApril 1 to May 10Aprildead elm, living ash, old apple orchard
IndianaApril 2 to May 12Aprildying elm, living white ash, just dead cottonwood
IowaApril 8 to May 15Aprildying elm, just dead cottonwood, living white ash
KansasMarch 28 to May 5Aprildying elm, just dead cottonwood, sycamore
KentuckyMarch 25 to May 5Aprildying elm, living white ash, tulip poplar
LouisianaFebruary 25 to April 5Marchsycamore, dying elm, river bottom hardwood
MaineApril 28 to June 5Mayold apple, dying elm, living white ash
MarylandApril 1 to May 8Apriltulip poplar, dying elm, living white ash
MassachusettsApril 18 to May 26Mayold apple, dying elm, living white ash
MichiganApril 20 to June 2Maysycamore, dying elm, living ash
MinnesotaApril 25 to June 5Maydying elm, just dead cottonwood, living white ash
MississippiMarch 1 to April 8Marchdying elm, sycamore, living white ash
MissouriMarch 28 to May 6Aprildying elm, living white ash, living cottonwood
MontanaApril 20 to July 8Mayburned conifer, cottonwood, aspen
NebraskaApril 5 to May 12Apriljust dead cottonwood, dying elm, sycamore
NevadaApril 15 to June 30Mayburned conifer, aspen, cottonwood along water
New HampshireApril 22 to May 30Mayold apple, dying elm, living white ash
New JerseyApril 5 to May 10Apriltulip poplar, dying elm, sycamore
New MexicoApril 1 to June 20Mayburned conifer, ponderosa duff, aspen
New YorkApril 15 to May 25Maydying elm, living white ash, old apple
North CarolinaMarch 18 to May 2Apriltulip poplar, dying elm, living white ash
North DakotaApril 25 to June 4Mayjust dead cottonwood, dying elm, green ash
OhioApril 5 to May 14Aprildying elm, living white ash, tulip poplar
OklahomaMarch 12 to April 22Marchdying elm, just dead cottonwood, sycamore
OregonApril 1 to July 5Mayburned conifer, cottonwood, mixed conifer duff
PennsylvaniaApril 8 to May 18Aprildying elm, living white ash, tulip poplar
Rhode IslandApril 16 to May 22Mayold apple, dying elm, living white ash
South CarolinaMarch 8 to April 18Marchtulip poplar, dying elm, sycamore
South DakotaApril 18 to May 28Mayjust dead cottonwood, burned ponderosa, dying elm
TennesseeMarch 15 to April 28Aprildying elm, living white ash, tulip poplar
TexasMarch 1 to April 15Marchdying elm, just dead cottonwood, sycamore
UtahApril 15 to June 28Mayburned conifer, aspen, cottonwood along water
VermontApril 22 to May 30Mayold apple, dying elm, living white ash
VirginiaMarch 25 to May 8Apriltulip poplar, dying elm, living white ash
WashingtonApril 1 to July 5Mayburned conifer, cottonwood, mixed conifer duff
West VirginiaApril 1 to May 12Aprildying elm, living white ash, tulip poplar
WisconsinApril 20 to June 1Maydying elm, just dead cottonwood, living white ash
WyomingApril 25 to July 5Mayburned conifer, cottonwood, aspen
The cut test

A true morel is hollow from cap to base

One cut lengthwise settles it, and the agencies state it without hedging. A true morel is pitted like a honeycomb and opens into a single hollow chamber the whole way down. A false morel is reddish, wrinkled or brainlike rather than pitted, and its stalk is dense or chambered rather than open. Here are those sentences in full, from the Missouri Department of Conservation and the Forest Service.

Identification is yours to make in your hand, and these quotes are the published sources rather than a substitute for them. Cook true morels before eating them.

Permits

Who to ask about picking on federal ground

Mushrooms are named as a special forest product in the federal programme, and the prohibition that free use and personal use permits are written against is paragraph (h) of 36 CFR 261.6. Which means the answer for a given national forest comes from that forest’s district office, and it differs from forest to forest and year to year.

  • “Examples include such products as floral greenery, Christmas trees and boughs, mushrooms, transplants (trees, shrubs or herbaceous plants), cones, medicinal plants, cuttings, herbs, nuts, berries, decorative wood, and pitch.”

    Special Forest Products Mushrooms are a special forest product by name in the federal programme, which is why the permit question on a national forest belongs to the district office and the answer differs forest by forest.

  • “Removing any timber, tree or other forest product, except as authorized by a special-use authorization, timber sale contract, or Federal law or regulation.”

    36 CFR 261.6, Timber and other forest products The prohibition every national forest free use and personal use permit is written against. Paragraph (h) of section 261.6, which is the governing section.

Morel mushroom questions

More for spring foraging

The rating is a forecast of whether the soil has reached the published threshold, which tells you when to go; the walking finds the mushrooms. Soil temperature and soil moisture come from the Open-Meteo model for your coordinate, and the threshold, the floor and every other number in the forecast are quoted above with the source they came from.

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