Skip to content
NOAA’s March to May 2027 outlook, read state by state

Spring Forecast 2027: Early or Late, State by State

Which way the season leans where you are, how much water the melt is carrying, how far leaf-out runs ahead of the last freeze, and a live reading for your own ZIP: the running temperature, the next freeze in the forecast and the soil at planting depth.

Your place

How spring is running where you are

Enter a ZIP code. The reading puts the last 30 days against the same days in recent years, looks ten days ahead for a night at or below freezing, reads the soil temperature at 6 cm, and counts the days to the normal last freeze for that state.

A seasonal outlook is a probability, never a promise. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issued the March to May 2027 outlook on October 15, 2026 and shifts the odds between three categories, warmer than normal, near normal and cooler than normal, measured against 1991 to 2020. Equal chances means the outlook has no usable signal there.

38
States tilted warm for March to May 2027
of 50, read off CPC’s outlook polygons
2
States tilted cool
the rest carry equal chances
18
States tilted wet
4 tilted dry
13
States with a spring snowpack
measured by the NRCS and NWS snow networks
The outlook

Where the season leans warm, and where it leans cool

The Climate Prediction Center issues one seasonal outlook for the country and draws it as polygons, not state lines. Every state below is read off those polygons at points across the state, which is why a few states straddle two bands and carry the note. A tilt shifts the odds between warmer than normal, near normal and cooler than normal. It is a probability, never a promise.

Every state’s March to May 2027 temperature tilt, grouped the way the outlook map groups them.
RegionWarm tiltCool tiltEqual chancesStates
Northeast900Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont
Southeast1400Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia
Midwest1002Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin
Rockies204Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Utah, Wyoming
Southwest022Arizona, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas
West302Alaska, California, Hawaii, Oregon, Washington

A seasonal outlook is a probability, never a promise. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issued the March to May 2027 outlook on October 15, 2026 and shifts the odds between three categories, warmer than normal, near normal and cooler than normal, measured against 1991 to 2020. Equal chances means the outlook has no usable signal there.

A wide river running brown and high between gravel banks under a mountain ridge
A mountain river carrying its melt. How fast a pack comes off matters as much as how deep it was: a slow cool melt feeds the summer, and a warm rain falling on standing snow sends the same water down in days.Yellowstone flood event 2022 Lamar River above the Confluence with the Yellowstone River, Yellowstone National Park (NPS), Public domain
Advertisement
The spread

How wide spring is across the country

Spring arrives over months, not weeks, and the two dates that matter move at different speeds. Leaf-out follows warmth and comes early in a warm year. The last freeze is a longer average and barely moves. The states where the two are furthest apart are the ones where a warm February costs the most, because the plants are out and the cold still comes.

  • February 1 to May 21the range of statewide median last freeze dates, from Florida to Wyoming, across 49 states
  • Jan 17 to Apr 25the range of normal first leaf dates, from Florida to Minnesota, across 48 states

Where leaf-out runs furthest ahead of the last freeze

  1. Nevada66 days, Mar 7 to May 12
  2. Utah59 days, Mar 13 to May 11
  3. New Mexico58 days, Mar 3 to Apr 30
  4. Oregon50 days, Mar 4 to Apr 23
  5. Virginia48 days, Feb 25 to Apr 14
  6. South Carolina47 days, Feb 6 to Mar 25
  7. Alabama43 days, Feb 7 to Mar 22
  8. Arizona43 days, Feb 17 to Apr 1

First leaf dates are the USA National Phenology Network’s 1991 to 2020 normals for its Spring Leaf Index. Freeze dates come from NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals 1991-2020, annual/seasonal, by station (v1.0.1), read on September 21, 2026. The drought figures on every state page come from the United States Drought Monitor map for August 25, 2026.

The research

What decides whether spring comes early

Nine things set the reading on every state page, and each one comes from an agency that publishes its own numbers: the seasonal outlook and the ENSO state behind it, the snow still on the ground and the water in the mountain pack, the rain tilt and the deficit already in the soil, and the distance between normal leaf-out and the normal last freeze. Every card carries the sentence the agency wrote.

The March to May temperature outlook

CPC’s official call on the season spring happens in. A warm tilt moves leaf-out and the last freeze earlier; equal chances move nothing.

  • The temperature outlook holds its winter shape into spring, so the March to May map is not a new pattern but the winter one carried forward.

    The evolution of the Temperature Outlooks from Dec-Jan-Feb (DJF) 2026-2027 through MAM 2027 maintain the NDJ forecast pattern in large order and are consistent with strong El Nino events through these seasons with additional attention paid to some of the historically strong events.

  • A white area on the outlook map is not a forecast of normal. It means the three categories are near their climatological odds and the outlook has no usable signal there.

    Equal chances (EC, white areas) are forecast for areas where probabilities for each category of seasonal mean temperatures and accumulated precipitation amounts are forecast to be similar to climatological probabilities.

  • CPC writes these outlooks to be read before the season starts, which is what makes a spring outlook read in autumn the right document and not a stale one.

    These climate outlooks are intended for use prior to the start of their valid period.

The February to April window

The weeks when spring either starts or waits. A state can be tilted warm for the season and flat for its opening weeks.

  • The warm tilt over the northern Plains weakens as the seasons move from February to April into April to June, so the early part of spring carries more of it than the late part.

    Another change over these seasons is a slight lowering of probabilities for above-normal temperatures in the northern Plains during FMA to Apr-May-Jun (AMJ) 2027.

  • Parts of the Southwest are the one area CPC tilts cool for both the February to April and March to May seasons.

    During the FMA and MAM 2027 seasons, there is enough consensus in statistical, hybrid and dynamical model guidance for parts of the Southwest CONUS to favor below-normal temperatures in this area.

The ENSO state

An El Nino advisory is in effect and favored to hold through spring. It is the reason the outlook maps look the way they do, and it tilts odds rather than setting outcomes.

  • CPC has an El Nino advisory in effect and favors the event continuing through spring 2027, which is why the spring outlook looks the way it does.

    The ongoing El Nino event continues to strengthen, and an El Nino advisory remains in effect and is favored to continue through Spring 2027.

  • CPC puts an 80 percent chance on at least a strong El Nino holding through January to March, and favors an El Nino of some strength through March to May 2027.

    The official CPC ENSO Outlook forecasts high probabilities (80%) for at least a strong El Nino event to continue through the Jan-Feb-Mar (JFM) 2027 season and favors an El Nino event of any strength to continue through the Mar-Apr-May (MAM) 2027.

  • The advisory puts the chance of a strong to very strong El Nino through January to March above 83 percent.

    El Niño continues to strengthen, with a strong-to-very strong El Niño likely through January-March 2027 (remaining greater than an 83% chance).

  • A strong event raises the odds of the usual El Nino outcomes without guaranteeing any of them, which is the whole reason a tilt is not a forecast.

    With an event of this magnitude, the chances of experiencing impacts consistent with El Niño are larger, though not guaranteed (see CPC outlooks for probabilities of seasonal anomalies).

  • In an El Nino the storm track sits south of mainland Alaska, which is the mechanism behind the dry tilt there.

    The Pacific Jet is shifted southward and eastward during El Nino events and so the storm track and associated precipitation tends to be located south of most of mainland Alaska.

A pack holding the ground cold

Snow cover keeps the air above it cool and pushes warming later, which is a brake on spring the temperature outlook does not carry on its own.

  • Widespread snow cover keeps the air above it cooler and pushes spring warming later, then makes the melt faster when it comes.

    Also, when snow cover is widespread, it usually keeps air temperatures cooler and delays spring warming, which increases the potential for more rapid snowmelt.

  • A snowpack is water held in place until the thaw, so a spring that starts with a deep pack starts with its runoff already banked.

    Unlike rainfall that can reach the soil almost immediately, the snowpack can store the water for an extended amount of time until temperatures rise above freezing and the snow melts.

The March to May precipitation outlook

Where spring water is favored and where it is not. This year the signal is wet in the Southeast and on the West Coast and dry from the northern Rockies to the Great Lakes.

  • A wet Southeast is the most dependable El Nino signal there is, and the models carry it with high confidence this year.

    Above-normal precipitation in the Southeast is one of the most reliable signals from El Nino events and dynamical model guidance shows very high probabilities for wetter than average conditions in this region.

  • The wet odds in the deep Southeast and northern Florida run past 70 percent in late winter and ease through spring, so the signal is strongest early.

    Odds for above-normal precipitation exceed 70% for some areas in the extreme Southeast and northern Florida through the JFM 2027 season and decrease slowly through AMJ 2027.

  • The dry tilt over the northern Rockies and the Great Lakes holds through spring and the two areas join into one by March to May.

    Moving through the winter and spring 2027 seasons, the areas of favored below-normal precipitation over the northern Rockies and Great Lakes remain generally consistent with a gradual slight northward shift and these areas become combined by the MAM 2027 season.

  • A Pacific jet pushed south and east raises the odds of a wet West Coast as far north as the Oregon coast.

    An enhanced and southward and eastward shifted Pacific Jet supports elevated probabilities for above-normal precipitation for much of the West Coast including areas extending as far north as the Oregon coast.

  • Model guidance agrees on a drier than normal southern Alaska through February to April.

    Dynamical model guidance and statistical forecast tools are in strong agreement for drier than normal conditions for this area through the FMA 2027 season.

  • A white area on the outlook map is not a forecast of normal. It means the three categories are near their climatological odds and the outlook has no usable signal there.

    Equal chances (EC, white areas) are forecast for areas where probabilities for each category of seasonal mean temperatures and accumulated precipitation amounts are forecast to be similar to climatological probabilities.

Snowpack against normal

Water already on the ground, waiting for the thaw. A pack above normal is runoff banked; one below normal is a shortfall that spring rain has to cover.

  • Snowmelt flooding is a northern tier and mountain problem, which is why only some states carry a melt section.

    The northern tier states and mountainous areas of the U.S. are particularly susceptible to snowmelt flooding.

  • A snowpack is water held in place until the thaw, so a spring that starts with a deep pack starts with its runoff already banked.

    Unlike rainfall that can reach the soil almost immediately, the snowpack can store the water for an extended amount of time until temperatures rise above freezing and the snow melts.

  • A melting pack delivers water at about the rate of light to moderate rain, which is why a long thaw matters more than a hot afternoon.

    Snowmelt rates are usually comparable to light or moderate rainfall.

  • Hard ground frost stops meltwater from soaking in, so it runs off instead.

    Deep, hard ground frost prevents snowmelt from infiltrating into the soil.

The deficit spring starts with

Drought mapped in late winter is the hole spring rain fills first, which is why a near normal spring can still leave a state dry.

  • The Drought Monitor is a weekly map, so a drought number on a spring page is a reading from a specific Thursday and not a running total.

    The U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) is a map released every Thursday, showing where drought is and how bad it is across the U.S. and its territories.

  • The map comes from several datasets reconciled by people who know the ground, which is why it is the number to use and not one rainfall deficit.

    Using many different types of data and reconciling them with expert interpretation is what makes the USDM unique.

Rain onto snow, and ice jams

The two ways an ordinary melt turns into a flood.

  • Rain onto standing snow adds its own water and melts the pack underneath, which is the combination forecasters watch most closely.

    Rain falling while snow is still on the ground contributes more water for flooding and helps to melt the snowpack, thus rain-on-snow events are watched carefully.

  • A surge of snowmelt runoff shoves river ice into jams, which is how a river floods upstream of ice that has not moved.

    Ice jams often form as a result of the sudden push exerted on the ice by a surge of runoff into the river associated with snowmelt.

The gap between leaf-out and the last freeze

Both ends are published normals for the same 30 years, so the days between them are a climatology of how long plants are normally out while a freeze is still likely.

  • The First Leaf and First Bloom Indices are modeled from recent temperatures, not counted from observed plants, so a date from them is a model output.

    The First Leaf and First Bloom Indices are synthetic measures of these early season events in plants, based on recent temperature conditions.

  • The indices exist to follow spring moving across the country, which is what makes a normal leaf-out date comparable between states.

    These models allow us to track the progression of spring onset across the country.

  • The Late Bloom Index marks the tail of the season, so a state has a modeled start and a modeled end to its spring.

    The Late Bloom Index indicates when plants that bloom at the tail end of the season are flowering, effectively representing the end of the spring season.

  • NCEI describes its normals as a ruler for today and a predictor of the near future, which is exactly the job a last freeze date does.

    Normals act both as a ruler to compare today’s weather and tomorrow’s forecast, and as a predictor of conditions in the near future.

  • The normals come from a uniform 30 year period across almost 15,000 stations, which is why a station a county away can carry a different last freeze date.

    The official normals are calculated for a uniform 30 year period, and consist of annual/seasonal, monthly, daily, and hourly averages and statistics of temperature, precipitation, and other climatological variables from almost 15,000 U.S. weather stations.

  • Every tilt is measured against the 1991 to 2020 period, the same 30 years the frost dates and spring indices on these pages use.

    The Climatic normals are based on conditions between 1991 and 2020, following the World Meterological Organization convention of using the most recent 3 complete decades as the climatic reference period.

A dial soil thermometer pushed into bare ground at a weather station
The number that decides planting is not the air temperature. Cool season seed germinates with the soil near 50 F and warm season transplants want 60 F, both measured a few inches down and read in the morning.2024-04-26 14 45 08 A Palmer soil thermometer at the weather station at the Rutgers Gardens in North Brunswick Township, Middlesex County, New Jersey, Famartin, CC BY-SA 4.0

The sources

  • Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Seasonal OutlooksNOAA National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center, 2026. Issued 2026-10-15 by forecaster Jon Gottschalck. Covers DJF 2026-2027 through the following seasons, MAM 2027 among them.
  • ENSO Diagnostic DiscussionNOAA National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center, 2026. Issued 2026-10-08. ENSO Alert System Status: El Nino Advisory.
  • Flood and Flash Flood HazardsNOAA National Weather Service, 2026. The agency’s own explanation of how snowmelt, frozen ground, rain on snow and ice jams produce spring flooding.
  • Spring IndicesUSA National Phenology Network, 2026. The Extended Spring Indices, which model first leaf, first bloom and late bloom from recent temperatures.
  • U.S. Climate NormalsNOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, 2026. The 1991 to 2020 normals, including the freeze and frost date probabilities this vertical reads.
  • What is the U.S. Drought MonitorNational Drought Mitigation Center, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, 2026. The weekly map this vertical reads for the deficit a spring starts with.
  • National Snow AnalysesNOAA National Weather Service, 2026. Daily modeled snow depth and snow water equivalent for the country. Linked as a data source; the page carries no quotation from it.
50 states

Spring forecasts by state

Each state page carries its own outlook reading, its own station by station freeze dates, its own snowpack where there is one, the drought already on the ground, and the planting sentence its extension service wrote.

White serviceberry flowers open on a bare branch
Serviceberry opens early, ahead of its own leaves, which is what makes the shrub a calendar. The Spring Leaf Index tracks the same accumulated warmth that sets it off, and so does the clock on anything in the garden.Amelanchier-ovalis-flower, Sten Porse, CC BY-SA 3.0

Spring forecast questions

The March to May 2027 outlook was issued by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center on October 15, 2026. Freeze and frost dates come from NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals 1991-2020, annual/seasonal, by station (v1.0.1), the NOAA 1991 to 2020 Climate Normals, which is a 30 year average and not a forecast for one year. Live readings come from the National Weather Service forecast for the ZIP entered, and the local forecast office issues the warnings that govern. Every factor above rests on an agency’s own words: 30 quoted sentences from 7 sources, each with its link and the date it was read. For the season spring is waiting on, see the winter forecast.

More for the spring

Winter forecastThe outlook for the season spring is waiting on.Frost datesFirst and last frost normals for any ZIP.Spring bloomWhen the flowering starts, and where.Seed starting calendarCounted back from your own last frost date.Morel mushroom forecastThe soil warmth that brings morels up, read for any ZIP.Planting zonesHardiness zones, state by state.Soil temperatureA live reading of the ground.SnowpackWhat the mountains are holding for the melt.River levelsEvery gauge, running high or low.
Advertisement