Each state page lists its reference stations with the odds of 1, 3 and 5 inches, the best bets in the state and a ZIP lookup scoped to it.
How it works
How the odds are worked out
The definition
NOAA counts a white Christmas as at least 1 inch of snow on the ground on the morning of December 25. Snow that fell last week counts; flurries on bare ground do not.
The odds
The share of years from 1991 to 2020 that met it at the station, from NOAA’s daily climate normals. We also show the odds of 3 and 5 inches.
The last 10 years
Each station’s own December 25 snow depth for 2016 to 2025, as ten marks, so you can see how recent years compare with the average.
Elevation changes the answer fast, so a higher or lower station nearby is shown beside yours.
Ranked by the best station in each state. The leaders are Alaska (100% at North Pole), Wyoming (100% at Snake River), Montana (100% at Cooke City). Mountain stations dominate the top, so each state page also gives the typical station, which is usually lower.
Pick a state for its reference stations, its best bets and a ZIP lookup. Warm states show the chance near their stations and the nearest place where snow on Christmas is a real possibility.
Enter your ZIP code above. The number is the share of years from 1991 to 2020 that had at least 1 inch of snow on the ground on December 25, at the nearest weather station, with the last 10 Christmases beside it. Where a station in the hills sits more than 1,000 feet above or below the nearest one, both are shown.
NOAA counts a white Christmas as at least 1 inch of snow on the ground on the morning of December 25. It does not matter whether the snow fell that day or weeks before. Falling snow on bare ground does not count.
The mountains and the northern tier. By the best station in each state: Alaska (100% at North Pole), Wyoming (100% at Snake River) and Montana (100% at Cooke City). Odds depend heavily on elevation, so a state's best station is usually a high one and its typical station is lower. Each state page lists both.
NOAA's 1991 to 2020 daily climate normals, the percent of years with 1 inch or more of snow on the ground on December 25, at 2,587 stations across 50 states. The recent Christmases come from NOAA's daily station records for 2016 to 2025.
The 1991 to 2020 normals are a 30 year average, so they smooth over warm and cold years. The last 10 Christmases for each station are shown next to the average so you can see how recent years compare. A station that reports fewer than 5 of those years shows the average only.
From December 10 through Christmas Day, the page adds the Open-Meteo forecast for the snow depth on Christmas morning at your ZIP. A forecast that far out shifts from day to day, so check it again closer to the day.
The page still answers. It shows the odds at your nearest station, which may be near zero, and for states with no real chance it names the closest snowy station and how far the drive is.
The odds are climate, not weather: how often snow has been on the ground on December 25 over 1991 to 2020. The forecast, when it appears, is the weather for this year. Use the odds in October and the forecast in December.
