The odds of 1, 3 and 5 inches of snow on the ground on December 25, from the 1991 to 2020 NOAA normals, with how many of the last ten Christmases were white where the station reported.
White Christmas odds at Idaho reference stations
Station
Elevation
1 inch+
3 inch+
5 inch+
Last 10
Boise Air Terminala long shot
2,814 ft
21%
8%
5%
4 of 10
Idaho Falls 46 Wlikely
4,938 ft
72%
54%
34%
8 of 10
Pocatello Regional Airporta coin flip
4,478 ft
47%
21%
11%
6 of 10
Lewiston Nez Perce County Airporta long shot
1,436 ft
11%
5%
2%
2 of 10
McCallalmost certain
5,025 ft
97%
94%
92%
9 of 10
Advertisement
Best bets
The best bets in Idaho
The highest and northernmost stations in Idaho have the best odds, and elevation does most of the work. The top four are McCall, Craters Of The Moon, Pierce and Cascade.
It depends on where. The best station of the 46 we track is McCall at 97%, almost certain, and the typical station is 65%. The ZIP lookup above gives your own number.
NOAA counts at least 1 inch of snow on the ground on the morning of December 25. The odds here are the share of years from 1991 to 2020 that met that.
At the highest and northernmost stations: McCall (97%), Craters Of The Moon (94%) and Pierce (93%). Elevation does most of the work, so a drive into the hills can change the odds a lot.
21% for 1 inch or more on the ground, 8% for 3 inches and 5% for 5 inches, at Boise Air Terminal (2,814 feet).
4 of the last 10 Christmases with a report had at least 1 inch of snow on the ground at Boise Air Terminal.
At McCall, the odds of 5 inches or more are 92%. Most stations are lower; the state page table shows 1, 3 and 5 inch odds for each reference station.
Pierce had 28 inches on the ground on Christmas morning 2022, the deepest we see in the last 10 years.
From December 10, the ZIP lookup adds a forecast of the snow on the ground Christmas morning. It shifts from day to day until the last few days.
