The odds of 1, 3 and 5 inches of snow on the ground on December 25, from the 1991 to 2020 NOAA normals, with how many of the last ten Christmases were white where the station reported.
White Christmas odds at Montana reference stations
Station
Elevation
1 inch+
3 inch+
5 inch+
Last 10
Billings Logan International Airporta coin flip
3,581 ft
45%
24%
14%
5 of 10
Glasgow International Airportlikely
2,285 ft
63%
44%
24%
6 of 10
Great Falls International Airporta coin flip
3,664 ft
41%
23%
11%
3 of 10
Missoula International Airporta coin flip
3,192 ft
56%
36%
22%
6 of 10
Havre City County Airporta coin flip
2,585 ft
53%
37%
24%
3 of 10
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Best bets
The best bets in Montana
The highest and northernmost stations in Montana have the best odds, and elevation does most of the work. The top four are Cooke City, Hebgen Dam, Lindbergh Lake and W Glacier.
It depends on where. The best station of the 60 we track is Cooke City at 100%, almost certain, and the typical station is 56%. The ZIP lookup above gives your own number.
NOAA counts at least 1 inch of snow on the ground on the morning of December 25. The odds here are the share of years from 1991 to 2020 that met that.
At the highest and northernmost stations: Cooke City (100%), Hebgen Dam (100%) and Lindbergh Lake (98%). Elevation does most of the work, so a drive into the hills can change the odds a lot.
45% for 1 inch or more on the ground, 24% for 3 inches and 14% for 5 inches, at Billings Logan International Airport (3,581 feet).
5 of the last 10 Christmases with a report had at least 1 inch of snow on the ground at Billings Logan International Airport.
At Cooke City, the odds of 5 inches or more are 100%. Most stations are lower; the state page table shows 1, 3 and 5 inch odds for each reference station.
Hebgen Dam had 26 inches on the ground on Christmas morning 2022, the deepest we see in the last 10 years.
From December 10, the ZIP lookup adds a forecast of the snow on the ground Christmas morning. It shifts from day to day until the last few days.
