The odds of 1, 3 and 5 inches of snow on the ground on December 25, from the 1991 to 2020 NOAA normals, with how many of the last ten Christmases were white where the station reported.
White Christmas odds at Arizona reference stations
Station
Elevation
1 inch+
3 inch+
5 inch+
Last 10
Tucson International Airportalmost never
2,549 ft
0%
0%
0%
0 of 9
Paysonrare
4,850 ft
6%
3%
1%
2 of 10
Flagstaff Pulliam Airportlikely
7,003 ft
60%
49%
36%
3 of 10
Yuma Proving Groundalmost never
324 ft
0%
0%
0%
0 of 10
Bagdadrare
3,935 ft
1%
0%
0%
1 of 10
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Best bets
The best bets in Arizona
The highest and northernmost stations in Arizona have the best odds, and elevation does most of the work. The top four are Bright Angel Ranger Station, Flagstaff Pulliam, Mc Nary and Diamond M Rch.
It depends on where. The best station of the 60 we track is Bright Angel Ranger Station at 89%, likely, and the typical station is 0%. The ZIP lookup above gives your own number.
NOAA counts at least 1 inch of snow on the ground on the morning of December 25. The odds here are the share of years from 1991 to 2020 that met that.
At the highest and northernmost stations: Bright Angel Ranger Station (89%), Flagstaff Pulliam (60%) and Mc Nary (54%). Elevation does most of the work, so a drive into the hills can change the odds a lot.
0% for 1 inch or more on the ground, 0% for 3 inches and 0% for 5 inches, at Tucson International Airport (2,549 feet).
0 of the last 9 Christmases with a report had at least 1 inch of snow on the ground at Tucson International Airport.
At Bright Angel Ranger Station, the odds of 5 inches or more are 75%. Most stations are lower; the state page table shows 1, 3 and 5 inch odds for each reference station.
Bright Angel Ranger Station had 23 inches on the ground on Christmas morning 2016, the deepest we see in the last 10 years.
From December 10, the ZIP lookup adds a forecast of the snow on the ground Christmas morning. It shifts from day to day until the last few days.
