The odds of 1, 3 and 5 inches of snow on the ground on December 25, from the 1991 to 2020 NOAA normals, with how many of the last ten Christmases were white where the station reported.
White Christmas odds at New Mexico reference stations
Station
Elevation
1 inch+
3 inch+
5 inch+
Last 10
Albuquerque International Airportrare
5,310 ft
4%
1%
1%
0 of 10
Roswell Ind Air Peakrare
3,649 ft
7%
5%
4%
0 of 10
Zunirare
6,311 ft
6%
3%
1%
0 of 5
Cuberorare
6,195 ft
6%
2%
2%
0 of 10
Pasamontea long shot
5,650 ft
12%
7%
3%
0 of 10
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Best bets
The best bets in New Mexico
The highest and northernmost stations in New Mexico have the best odds, and elevation does most of the work. The top four are Dulce, Pietown, Cerro and Johnson Rch.
It depends on where. The best station of the 60 we track is Dulce at 63%, likely, and the typical station is 7%. The ZIP lookup above gives your own number.
NOAA counts at least 1 inch of snow on the ground on the morning of December 25. The odds here are the share of years from 1991 to 2020 that met that.
At the highest and northernmost stations: Dulce (63%), Pietown (48%) and Cerro (41%). Elevation does most of the work, so a drive into the hills can change the odds a lot.
4% for 1 inch or more on the ground, 1% for 3 inches and 1% for 5 inches, at Albuquerque International Airport (5,310 feet).
0 of the last 10 Christmases with a report had at least 1 inch of snow on the ground at Albuquerque International Airport.
At Dulce, the odds of 5 inches or more are 38%. Most stations are lower; the state page table shows 1, 3 and 5 inch odds for each reference station.
Dulce had 6 inches on the ground on Christmas morning 2016, the deepest we see in the last 10 years.
From December 10, the ZIP lookup adds a forecast of the snow on the ground Christmas morning. It shifts from day to day until the last few days.
