The odds of 1, 3 and 5 inches of snow on the ground on December 25, from the 1991 to 2020 NOAA normals, with how many of the last ten Christmases were white where the station reported.
White Christmas odds at Michigan reference stations
Station
Elevation
1 inch+
3 inch+
5 inch+
Last 10
Detroit Metro Airporta long shot
631 ft
35%
23%
17%
4 of 10
Flint Bishop International Airporta coin flip
770 ft
51%
26%
14%
6 of 10
Gladwinlikely
775 ft
62%
43%
31%
6 of 10
Grand Rapidsa coin flip
778 ft
53%
34%
21%
4 of 10
Marquettelikely
665 ft
82%
69%
53%
8 of 10
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Best bets
The best bets in Michigan
The highest and northernmost stations in Michigan have the best odds, and elevation does most of the work. The top four are Bergland Dam, Herman, Marquette and Munising.
It depends on where. The best station of the 60 we track is Bergland Dam at 98%, almost certain, and the typical station is 65%. The ZIP lookup above gives your own number.
NOAA counts at least 1 inch of snow on the ground on the morning of December 25. The odds here are the share of years from 1991 to 2020 that met that.
At the highest and northernmost stations: Bergland Dam (98%), Herman (98%) and Marquette (96%). Elevation does most of the work, so a drive into the hills can change the odds a lot.
35% for 1 inch or more on the ground, 23% for 3 inches and 17% for 5 inches, at Detroit Metro Airport (631 feet).
4 of the last 10 Christmases with a report had at least 1 inch of snow on the ground at Detroit Metro Airport.
At Bergland Dam, the odds of 5 inches or more are 93%. Most stations are lower; the state page table shows 1, 3 and 5 inch odds for each reference station.
Herman had 36 inches on the ground on Christmas morning 2022, the deepest we see in the last 10 years.
From December 10, the ZIP lookup adds a forecast of the snow on the ground Christmas morning. It shifts from day to day until the last few days.
