The odds of 1, 3 and 5 inches of snow on the ground on December 25, from the 1991 to 2020 NOAA normals, with how many of the last ten Christmases were white where the station reported.
White Christmas odds at New Jersey reference stations
Station
Elevation
1 inch+
3 inch+
5 inch+
Last 10
Newark International Airporta long shot
7 ft
14%
8%
5%
0 of 10
Cape May 2 NWrare
20 ft
7%
4%
2%
0 of 9
Hightstown 2 Wa long shot
100 ft
12%
7%
3%
0 of 10
Estell Manora long shot
85 ft
11%
5%
3%
0 of 10
Indian Mills 2 Wa long shot
100 ft
12%
5%
3%
0 of 7
Advertisement
Best bets
The best bets in New Jersey
The highest and northernmost stations in New Jersey have the best odds, and elevation does most of the work. The top four are Sussex, Pottersville, Cranford and New Brunswick.
It depends on where. The best station of the 17 we track is Sussex at 38%, a long shot, and the typical station is 12%. The ZIP lookup above gives your own number.
NOAA counts at least 1 inch of snow on the ground on the morning of December 25. The odds here are the share of years from 1991 to 2020 that met that.
At the highest and northernmost stations: Sussex (38%), Pottersville (21%) and Cranford (17%). Elevation does most of the work, so a drive into the hills can change the odds a lot.
14% for 1 inch or more on the ground, 8% for 3 inches and 5% for 5 inches, at Newark International Airport (7 feet).
0 of the last 10 Christmases with a report had at least 1 inch of snow on the ground at Newark International Airport.
At Sussex, the odds of 5 inches or more are 13%. Most stations are lower; the state page table shows 1, 3 and 5 inch odds for each reference station.
Sussex had 3 inches on the ground on Christmas morning 2017, the deepest we see in the last 10 years.
From December 10, the ZIP lookup adds a forecast of the snow on the ground Christmas morning. It shifts from day to day until the last few days.
