The odds of 1, 3 and 5 inches of snow on the ground on December 25, from the 1991 to 2020 NOAA normals, with how many of the last ten Christmases were white where the station reported.
White Christmas odds at New York reference stations
Station
Elevation
1 inch+
3 inch+
5 inch+
Last 10
Albany Airporta coin flip
312 ft
42%
25%
16%
4 of 10
Binghamtona coin flip
1,606 ft
57%
33%
19%
9 of 10
Buffaloa coin flip
693 ft
53%
34%
25%
6 of 10
New York JFK International Airporta long shot
11 ft
12%
7%
5%
0 of 10
Rochester Greater International Airporta coin flip
533 ft
52%
28%
17%
5 of 10
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Best bets
The best bets in New York
The highest and northernmost stations in New York have the best odds, and elevation does most of the work. The top four are Newcomb, Highmarket, Lake Placid and Big Moose.
It depends on where. The best station of the 60 we track is Newcomb at 91%, almost certain, and the typical station is 58%. The ZIP lookup above gives your own number.
NOAA counts at least 1 inch of snow on the ground on the morning of December 25. The odds here are the share of years from 1991 to 2020 that met that.
At the highest and northernmost stations: Newcomb (91%), Highmarket (89%) and Lake Placid (87%). Elevation does most of the work, so a drive into the hills can change the odds a lot.
42% for 1 inch or more on the ground, 25% for 3 inches and 16% for 5 inches, at Albany Airport (312 feet).
4 of the last 10 Christmases with a report had at least 1 inch of snow on the ground at Albany Airport.
At Newcomb, the odds of 5 inches or more are 63%. Most stations are lower; the state page table shows 1, 3 and 5 inch odds for each reference station.
Buffalo had 27.2 inches on the ground on Christmas morning 2022, the deepest we see in the last 10 years.
From December 10, the ZIP lookup adds a forecast of the snow on the ground Christmas morning. It shifts from day to day until the last few days.
