The odds of 1, 3 and 5 inches of snow on the ground on December 25, from the 1991 to 2020 NOAA normals, with how many of the last ten Christmases were white where the station reported.
White Christmas odds at Washington reference stations
Station
Elevation
1 inch+
3 inch+
5 inch+
Last 10
Spokane International Airporta coin flip
2,353 ft
48%
30%
18%
4 of 10
Seattle Sand Point Wsforare
60 ft
3%
1%
1%
0 of 9
Boundary Damalmost certain
1,837 ft
92%
76%
65%
6 of 9
Longmire Rainier Npslikely
2,762 ft
81%
69%
59%
7 of 8
Stehekin 4 NWalmost certain
1,257 ft
94%
86%
77%
8 of 8
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Best bets
The best bets in Washington
The highest and northernmost stations in Washington have the best odds, and elevation does most of the work. The top four are Holden Village, Mazama, Winthrop and Stehekin.
It depends on where. The best station of the 60 we track is Holden Village at 99%, almost certain, and the typical station is 7%. The ZIP lookup above gives your own number.
NOAA counts at least 1 inch of snow on the ground on the morning of December 25. The odds here are the share of years from 1991 to 2020 that met that.
At the highest and northernmost stations: Holden Village (99%), Mazama (99%) and Winthrop (96%). Elevation does most of the work, so a drive into the hills can change the odds a lot.
48% for 1 inch or more on the ground, 30% for 3 inches and 18% for 5 inches, at Spokane International Airport (2,353 feet).
4 of the last 10 Christmases with a report had at least 1 inch of snow on the ground at Spokane International Airport.
At Holden Village, the odds of 5 inches or more are 98%. Most stations are lower; the state page table shows 1, 3 and 5 inch odds for each reference station.
Holden Village had 51 inches on the ground on Christmas morning 2018, the deepest we see in the last 10 years.
From December 10, the ZIP lookup adds a forecast of the snow on the ground Christmas morning. It shifts from day to day until the last few days.
