The odds of 1, 3 and 5 inches of snow on the ground on December 25, from the 1991 to 2020 NOAA normals, with how many of the last ten Christmases were white where the station reported.
White Christmas odds at Missouri reference stations
Station
Elevation
1 inch+
3 inch+
5 inch+
Last 10
Kansas City International Airporta long shot
1,005 ft
20%
8%
4%
2 of 10
St. Louis Lambert International Airporta long shot
531 ft
17%
9%
5%
2 of 10
Springfielda long shot
1,278 ft
12%
6%
4%
1 of 10
Columbia Regional Airporta long shot
893 ft
15%
4%
2%
2 of 10
Marshallrare
790 ft
6%
3%
1%
0 of 9
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Best bets
The best bets in Missouri
The highest and northernmost stations in Missouri have the best odds, and elevation does most of the work. The top four are Brookfield, Conception, Milan and Edina.
It depends on where. The best station of the 60 we track is Brookfield at 30%, a long shot, and the typical station is 13%. The ZIP lookup above gives your own number.
NOAA counts at least 1 inch of snow on the ground on the morning of December 25. The odds here are the share of years from 1991 to 2020 that met that.
At the highest and northernmost stations: Brookfield (30%), Conception (28%) and Milan (28%). Elevation does most of the work, so a drive into the hills can change the odds a lot.
20% for 1 inch or more on the ground, 8% for 3 inches and 4% for 5 inches, at Kansas City International Airport (1,005 feet).
2 of the last 10 Christmases with a report had at least 1 inch of snow on the ground at Kansas City International Airport.
At Brookfield, the odds of 5 inches or more are 3%. Most stations are lower; the state page table shows 1, 3 and 5 inch odds for each reference station.
Memphis had 4 inches on the ground on Christmas morning 2017, the deepest we see in the last 10 years.
From December 10, the ZIP lookup adds a forecast of the snow on the ground Christmas morning. It shifts from day to day until the last few days.
