The odds of 1, 3 and 5 inches of snow on the ground on December 25, from the 1991 to 2020 NOAA normals, with how many of the last ten Christmases were white where the station reported.
White Christmas odds at Kentucky reference stations
Station
Elevation
1 inch+
3 inch+
5 inch+
Last 10
Bowling Green Warren County Airportrare
528 ft
4%
1%
1 of 10
Cincinnati Northern Ky Airporta long shot
869 ft
17%
7%
2%
2 of 10
Jacksona long shot
1,364 ft
15%
4%
2%
2 of 10
Lexington Bluegrass Airportrare
980 ft
9%
3%
2 of 10
Louisville International Airportrare
488 ft
9%
3%
1%
1 of 10
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Best bets
The best bets in Kentucky
The highest and northernmost stations in Kentucky have the best odds, and elevation does most of the work. The top four are Cincinnati, Jackson, Skyline and Bradfordsville.
17%Cincinnati Northern Ky Airport869 ft, a long shot
It depends on where. The best station of the 48 we track is Cincinnati at 17%, a long shot, and the typical station is 6%. The ZIP lookup above gives your own number.
NOAA counts at least 1 inch of snow on the ground on the morning of December 25. The odds here are the share of years from 1991 to 2020 that met that.
At the highest and northernmost stations: Cincinnati (17%), Jackson (15%) and Skyline (14%). Elevation does most of the work, so a drive into the hills can change the odds a lot.
4% for 1 inch or more on the ground and 1% for 3 inches, at Bowling Green Warren County Airport (528 feet).
1 of the last 10 Christmases with a report had at least 1 inch of snow on the ground at Bowling Green Warren County Airport.
At Cincinnati, the odds of 5 inches or more are 2%. Most stations are lower; the state page table shows 1, 3 and 5 inch odds for each reference station.
Warnock had 8 inches on the ground on Christmas morning 2020, the deepest we see in the last 10 years.
From December 10, the ZIP lookup adds a forecast of the snow on the ground Christmas morning. It shifts from day to day until the last few days.
