The odds of 1, 3 and 5 inches of snow on the ground on December 25, from the 1991 to 2020 NOAA normals, with how many of the last ten Christmases were white where the station reported.
White Christmas odds at Kansas reference stations
Station
Elevation
1 inch+
3 inch+
5 inch+
Last 10
Dodge Citya long shot
2,590 ft
17%
7%
3%
0 of 10
Goodlanda long shot
3,651 ft
22%
9%
4%
3 of 10
Topeka Municipal Airporta long shot
876 ft
18%
7%
2%
1 of 10
Wichitaa long shot
1,335 ft
12%
4%
1%
1 of 10
Anthonyrare
1,340 ft
9%
3%
1%
0 of 10
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Best bets
The best bets in Kansas
The highest and northernmost stations in Kansas have the best odds, and elevation does most of the work. The top four are Troy, Plainville, Scott City and Minneapolis.
It depends on where. The best station of the 60 we track is Troy at 30%, a long shot, and the typical station is 15%. The ZIP lookup above gives your own number.
NOAA counts at least 1 inch of snow on the ground on the morning of December 25. The odds here are the share of years from 1991 to 2020 that met that.
At the highest and northernmost stations: Troy (30%), Plainville (28%) and Scott City (25%). Elevation does most of the work, so a drive into the hills can change the odds a lot.
17% for 1 inch or more on the ground, 7% for 3 inches and 3% for 5 inches, at Dodge City (2,590 feet).
0 of the last 10 Christmases with a report had at least 1 inch of snow on the ground at Dodge City.
At Troy, the odds of 5 inches or more are 10%. Most stations are lower; the state page table shows 1, 3 and 5 inch odds for each reference station.
Beloit had 5 inches on the ground on Christmas morning 2023, the deepest we see in the last 10 years.
From December 10, the ZIP lookup adds a forecast of the snow on the ground Christmas morning. It shifts from day to day until the last few days.
