White Christmas 2026 in North Carolina: The Odds, Town by Town

It depends on where. The best station of the 60 we track is Mount Mitchell at 43%, a coin flip, and the typical station is 2%. The ZIP lookup above gives your own number.

NOAA counts at least 1 inch of snow on the ground on the morning of December 25. The odds here are the share of years from 1991 to 2020 that met that.

At the highest and northernmost stations: Mount Mitchell (43%), Boone (16%) and Lake Toxaway (10%). Elevation does most of the work, so a drive into the hills can change the odds a lot.

7% for 1 inch or more on the ground, 3% for 3 inches and 2% for 5 inches, at Asheville (2,238 feet).

1 of the last 10 Christmases with a report had at least 1 inch of snow on the ground at Asheville.

At Mount Mitchell, the odds of 5 inches or more are 20%. Most stations are lower; the state page table shows 1, 3 and 5 inch odds for each reference station.

Mount Mitchell had 16 inches on the ground on Christmas morning 2018, the deepest we see in the last 10 years.

From December 10, the ZIP lookup adds a forecast of the snow on the ground Christmas morning. It shifts from day to day until the last few days.