The odds of 1, 3 and 5 inches of snow on the ground on December 25, from the 1991 to 2020 NOAA normals, with how many of the last ten Christmases were white where the station reported.
White Christmas odds at Maine reference stations
Station
Elevation
1 inch+
3 inch+
5 inch+
Last 10
Caribou Municipal Airportlikely
624 ft
87%
73%
62%
9 of 10
Portland International Jetporta coin flip
45 ft
48%
35%
25%
5 of 10
Bangor International Airportlikely
148 ft
61%
40%
29%
5 of 9
Brassua Damalmost certain
1,069 ft
90%
83%
72%
9 of 10
Dover-Foxcroft Wwtplikely
370 ft
84%
71%
58%
9 of 10
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Best bets
The best bets in Maine
The highest and northernmost stations in Maine have the best odds, and elevation does most of the work. The top four are Allagash, Eustis, Pittston Farm and Rangeley.
It depends on where. The best station of the 53 we track is Allagash at 96%, almost certain, and the typical station is 77%. The ZIP lookup above gives your own number.
NOAA counts at least 1 inch of snow on the ground on the morning of December 25. The odds here are the share of years from 1991 to 2020 that met that.
At the highest and northernmost stations: Allagash (96%), Eustis (95%) and Pittston Farm (94%). Elevation does most of the work, so a drive into the hills can change the odds a lot.
87% for 1 inch or more on the ground, 73% for 3 inches and 62% for 5 inches, at Caribou Municipal Airport (624 feet).
9 of the last 10 Christmases with a report had at least 1 inch of snow on the ground at Caribou Municipal Airport.
At Allagash, the odds of 5 inches or more are 74%. Most stations are lower; the state page table shows 1, 3 and 5 inch odds for each reference station.
Rangeley had 23 inches on the ground on Christmas morning 2017, the deepest we see in the last 10 years.
From December 10, the ZIP lookup adds a forecast of the snow on the ground Christmas morning. It shifts from day to day until the last few days.
