The odds of 1, 3 and 5 inches of snow on the ground on December 25, from the 1991 to 2020 NOAA normals, with how many of the last ten Christmases were white where the station reported.
White Christmas odds at Iowa reference stations
Station
Elevation
1 inch+
3 inch+
5 inch+
Last 10
Des Moines International Airporta long shot
957 ft
39%
27%
18%
3 of 10
Sioux City Gateway Airporta coin flip
1,095 ft
49%
28%
16%
3 of 10
Waterloo Municipal Airporta coin flip
868 ft
50%
34%
23%
4 of 10
Mason City Municipal Airportlikely
1,225 ft
61%
45%
29%
4 of 10
Dubuque Regional Airporta coin flip
1,056 ft
49%
38%
26%
3 of 10
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Best bets
The best bets in Iowa
The highest and northernmost stations in Iowa have the best odds, and elevation does most of the work. The top four are Sanborn, Rock Rapids, Lake Mills and Swea City.
It depends on where. The best station of the 60 we track is Sanborn at 70%, likely, and the typical station is 47%. The ZIP lookup above gives your own number.
NOAA counts at least 1 inch of snow on the ground on the morning of December 25. The odds here are the share of years from 1991 to 2020 that met that.
At the highest and northernmost stations: Sanborn (70%), Rock Rapids (70%) and Lake Mills (69%). Elevation does most of the work, so a drive into the hills can change the odds a lot.
39% for 1 inch or more on the ground, 27% for 3 inches and 18% for 5 inches, at Des Moines International Airport (957 feet).
3 of the last 10 Christmases with a report had at least 1 inch of snow on the ground at Des Moines International Airport.
At Sanborn, the odds of 5 inches or more are 39%. Most stations are lower; the state page table shows 1, 3 and 5 inch odds for each reference station.
Cresco had 14 inches on the ground on Christmas morning 2016, the deepest we see in the last 10 years.
From December 10, the ZIP lookup adds a forecast of the snow on the ground Christmas morning. It shifts from day to day until the last few days.
