The odds of 1, 3 and 5 inches of snow on the ground on December 25, from the 1991 to 2020 NOAA normals, with how many of the last ten Christmases were white where the station reported.
White Christmas odds at Alaska reference stations
Station
Elevation
1 inch+
3 inch+
5 inch+
Last 10
Bettles Airportalmost certain
642 ft
100%
99%
98%
8 of 8
Fairbanks International Airportalmost certain
432 ft
100%
100%
98%
10 of 10
Juneau International Airporta coin flip
16 ft
47%
32%
22%
4 of 10
Anchorage International Airportalmost certain
120 ft
94%
87%
78%
10 of 10
Northway Airportalmost certain
1,713 ft
100%
100%
97%
6 of 6
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Best bets
The best bets in Alaska
The highest and northernmost stations in Alaska have the best odds, and elevation does most of the work. The top four are North Pole, Puntilla, Tok and Bettles.
It depends on where. The best station of the 60 we track is North Pole at 100%, almost certain, and the typical station is 95%. The ZIP lookup above gives your own number.
NOAA counts at least 1 inch of snow on the ground on the morning of December 25. The odds here are the share of years from 1991 to 2020 that met that.
At the highest and northernmost stations: North Pole (100%), Puntilla (100%) and Tok (100%). Elevation does most of the work, so a drive into the hills can change the odds a lot.
100% for 1 inch or more on the ground, 99% for 3 inches and 98% for 5 inches, at Bettles Airport (642 feet).
8 of the last 8 Christmases with a report had at least 1 inch of snow on the ground at Bettles Airport.
At North Pole, the odds of 5 inches or more are 99%. Most stations are lower; the state page table shows 1, 3 and 5 inch odds for each reference station.
Eagle River had 63 inches on the ground on Christmas morning 2022, the deepest we see in the last 10 years.
From December 10, the ZIP lookup adds a forecast of the snow on the ground Christmas morning. It shifts from day to day until the last few days.
