The odds of 1, 3 and 5 inches of snow on the ground on December 25, from the 1991 to 2020 NOAA normals, with how many of the last ten Christmases were white where the station reported.
White Christmas odds at Virginia reference stations
Station
Elevation
1 inch+
3 inch+
5 inch+
Last 10
Danville Regional Airportrare
571 ft
3%
2%
1%
0 of 10
Lynchburg Regional Airportrare
940 ft
5%
2%
2%
0 of 10
Roanoke Regional Airportrare
1,175 ft
9%
4%
2%
1 of 10
Washington Dc Dulles Airportrare
290 ft
7%
3%
2%
0 of 10
Richmond International Airportrare
164 ft
6%
3%
1%
0 of 10
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Best bets
The best bets in Virginia
The highest and northernmost stations in Virginia have the best odds, and elevation does most of the work. The top four are Burkes Garden, Mustoe, Clintwood and Gathright Dam.
It depends on where. The best station of the 60 we track is Burkes Garden at 31%, a long shot, and the typical station is 6%. The ZIP lookup above gives your own number.
NOAA counts at least 1 inch of snow on the ground on the morning of December 25. The odds here are the share of years from 1991 to 2020 that met that.
At the highest and northernmost stations: Burkes Garden (31%), Mustoe (26%) and Clintwood (25%). Elevation does most of the work, so a drive into the hills can change the odds a lot.
3% for 1 inch or more on the ground, 2% for 3 inches and 1% for 5 inches, at Danville Regional Airport (571 feet).
0 of the last 10 Christmases with a report had at least 1 inch of snow on the ground at Danville Regional Airport.
At Burkes Garden, the odds of 5 inches or more are 8%. Most stations are lower; the state page table shows 1, 3 and 5 inch odds for each reference station.
Clintwood had 6 inches on the ground on Christmas morning 2020, the deepest we see in the last 10 years.
From December 10, the ZIP lookup adds a forecast of the snow on the ground Christmas morning. It shifts from day to day until the last few days.
