The odds of 1, 3 and 5 inches of snow on the ground on December 25, from the 1991 to 2020 NOAA normals, with how many of the last ten Christmases were white where the station reported.
White Christmas odds at California reference stations
Station
Elevation
1 inch+
3 inch+
5 inch+
Last 10
Bakersfield Airportalmost never
489 ft
0%
0%
0%
0 of 10
Eureka Weather Office Woodley Islandalmost never
20 ft
0%
0%
0%
0 of 10
Fresno Yosemite International Airportalmost never
333 ft
0%
0%
0%
0 of 10
Death Valley National Parkalmost never
-194 ft
0%
0%
0%
0 of 10
Pacific Housea coin flip
3,450 ft
41%
28%
21%
2 of 6
Advertisement
Best bets
The best bets in California
The highest and northernmost stations in California have the best odds, and elevation does most of the work. The top four are Lodgepole, Bodie California St. Historic P, Boca and Canyon Dam.
91%Lodgepole6,735 ft, almost certain
76%Bodie California St. Historic P8,370 ft, likely
It depends on where. The best station of the 60 we track is Lodgepole at 91%, almost certain, and the typical station is 0%. The ZIP lookup above gives your own number.
NOAA counts at least 1 inch of snow on the ground on the morning of December 25. The odds here are the share of years from 1991 to 2020 that met that.
At the highest and northernmost stations: Lodgepole (91%), Bodie California St. Historic P (76%) and Boca (68%). Elevation does most of the work, so a drive into the hills can change the odds a lot.
0% for 1 inch or more on the ground, 0% for 3 inches and 0% for 5 inches, at Bakersfield Airport (489 feet).
0 of the last 10 Christmases with a report had at least 1 inch of snow on the ground at Bakersfield Airport.
At Lodgepole, the odds of 5 inches or more are 82%. Most stations are lower; the state page table shows 1, 3 and 5 inch odds for each reference station.
Lodgepole had 39 inches on the ground on Christmas morning 2019, the deepest we see in the last 10 years.
From December 10, the ZIP lookup adds a forecast of the snow on the ground Christmas morning. It shifts from day to day until the last few days.
