The odds of 1, 3 and 5 inches of snow on the ground on December 25, from the 1991 to 2020 NOAA normals, with how many of the last ten Christmases were white where the station reported.
White Christmas odds at Illinois reference stations
Station
Elevation
1 inch+
3 inch+
5 inch+
Last 10
Springfield Capital Airporta long shot
594 ft
24%
10%
5%
1 of 10
Peoria Greater Peoria Airporta long shot
650 ft
31%
16%
9%
2 of 10
Chicago Ohare International Airporta long shot
658 ft
34%
19%
9%
3 of 10
Rockford Greater Rockford Airporta coin flip
730 ft
45%
31%
19%
3 of 10
Bourbonnais 3NWa long shot
650 ft
31%
17%
8%
3 of 10
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Best bets
The best bets in Illinois
The highest and northernmost stations in Illinois have the best odds, and elevation does most of the work. The top four are Galena, Mount Carroll, Stockton and Morrison.
It depends on where. The best station of the 60 we track is Galena at 48%, a coin flip, and the typical station is 24%. The ZIP lookup above gives your own number.
NOAA counts at least 1 inch of snow on the ground on the morning of December 25. The odds here are the share of years from 1991 to 2020 that met that.
At the highest and northernmost stations: Galena (48%), Mount Carroll (48%) and Stockton (47%). Elevation does most of the work, so a drive into the hills can change the odds a lot.
24% for 1 inch or more on the ground, 10% for 3 inches and 5% for 5 inches, at Springfield Capital Airport (594 feet).
1 of the last 10 Christmases with a report had at least 1 inch of snow on the ground at Springfield Capital Airport.
At Galena, the odds of 5 inches or more are 22%. Most stations are lower; the state page table shows 1, 3 and 5 inch odds for each reference station.
Rockford had 5.9 inches on the ground on Christmas morning 2016, the deepest we see in the last 10 years.
From December 10, the ZIP lookup adds a forecast of the snow on the ground Christmas morning. It shifts from day to day until the last few days.
