The odds of 1, 3 and 5 inches of snow on the ground on December 25, from the 1991 to 2020 NOAA normals, with how many of the last ten Christmases were white where the station reported.
White Christmas odds at Maryland reference stations
Station
Elevation
1 inch+
3 inch+
5 inch+
Last 10
Baltimore Wash International Airportrare
156 ft
7%
2%
2%
0 of 10
Millers 4 NEa long shot
860 ft
18%
9%
3%
0 of 10
Dalecarlia Rsvrrare
150 ft
3%
1%
0 of 8
Royal Oak 2 SSWrare
10 ft
5%
3%
2%
0 of 10
Frostburga coin flip
2,170 ft
49%
32%
21%
3 of 8
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Best bets
The best bets in Maryland
The highest and northernmost stations in Maryland have the best odds, and elevation does most of the work. The top four are Frostburg, Cumberland, Millers and Damascus.
It depends on where. The best station of the 18 we track is Frostburg at 49%, a coin flip, and the typical station is 7%. The ZIP lookup above gives your own number.
NOAA counts at least 1 inch of snow on the ground on the morning of December 25. The odds here are the share of years from 1991 to 2020 that met that.
At the highest and northernmost stations: Frostburg (49%), Cumberland (26%) and Millers (18%). Elevation does most of the work, so a drive into the hills can change the odds a lot.
7% for 1 inch or more on the ground, 2% for 3 inches and 2% for 5 inches, at Baltimore Wash International Airport (156 feet).
0 of the last 10 Christmases with a report had at least 1 inch of snow on the ground at Baltimore Wash International Airport.
At Frostburg, the odds of 5 inches or more are 21%. Most stations are lower; the state page table shows 1, 3 and 5 inch odds for each reference station.
Frostburg had 5 inches on the ground on Christmas morning 2022, the deepest we see in the last 10 years.
From December 10, the ZIP lookup adds a forecast of the snow on the ground Christmas morning. It shifts from day to day until the last few days.
