The odds of 1, 3 and 5 inches of snow on the ground on December 25, from the 1991 to 2020 NOAA normals, with how many of the last ten Christmases were white where the station reported.
White Christmas odds at Minnesota reference stations
Station
Elevation
1 inch+
3 inch+
5 inch+
Last 10
Duluthalmost certain
1,428 ft
92%
79%
65%
9 of 10
International Falls International Airportalmost certain
1,183 ft
93%
84%
69%
9 of 10
Rochester International Airportlikely
1,304 ft
70%
48%
32%
8 of 10
Minneapolis/st Paul Airportlikely
872 ft
74%
53%
39%
7 of 10
St. Cloud Regional Airportlikely
1,018 ft
77%
58%
42%
8 of 10
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Best bets
The best bets in Minnesota
The highest and northernmost stations in Minnesota have the best odds, and elevation does most of the work. The top four are Gunflint Lake, Wolf Ridge Elc, Cloquet and Brimson.
It depends on where. The best station of the 60 we track is Gunflint Lake at 98%, almost certain, and the typical station is 74%. The ZIP lookup above gives your own number.
NOAA counts at least 1 inch of snow on the ground on the morning of December 25. The odds here are the share of years from 1991 to 2020 that met that.
At the highest and northernmost stations: Gunflint Lake (98%), Wolf Ridge Elc (97%) and Cloquet (94%). Elevation does most of the work, so a drive into the hills can change the odds a lot.
92% for 1 inch or more on the ground, 79% for 3 inches and 65% for 5 inches, at Duluth (1,428 feet).
9 of the last 10 Christmases with a report had at least 1 inch of snow on the ground at Duluth.
At Gunflint Lake, the odds of 5 inches or more are 71%. Most stations are lower; the state page table shows 1, 3 and 5 inch odds for each reference station.
Wolf Ridge Elc had 40 inches on the ground on Christmas morning 2022, the deepest we see in the last 10 years.
From December 10, the ZIP lookup adds a forecast of the snow on the ground Christmas morning. It shifts from day to day until the last few days.
