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Pennsylvania Lake Effect Snow

One compact belt in the far northwest corner: the city of Erie and the higher ground behind it, on Pennsylvania's roughly 50 miles of Lake Erie shoreline.

Lake Erie drives this belt
Snowiest catalog station (Erie)
104 in
Belt cities on this site
1
Season core
Nov to Feb

Pennsylvania snowbelt at a glance

NOAA NCEI normals, 1991-2020
104 in
Erie
ERIE INTL AP, PA US

Seasonal snowfall normals from NOAA NCEI’s 1991-2020 U.S. Climate Normals, each attributed to its named station. Belt gradients are sharp enough that these single stations understate or overstate nearby towns by feet per season.

The mechanism

Where and why lake effect snow hits Pennsylvania

Erie is one of the snowiest cities of its size in America almost entirely because of the lake: its NOAA normal is well over twice Pittsburgh's in the same 1991-2020 period. The season loads heavily into late November through January, before ice cover grows; once Lake Erie freezes, which NOAA ice data shows happens in most winters, the belt goes quiet even in cold Februaries.

The setup

West-southwest flow with a long fetch up Lake Erie, landing squarely on Erie County.

The geography

Modest inland hills that add lift a few miles from the shore.

The off switch

The Lake Erie freeze, which typically ends the season sometime in mid or late winter.

Satellite view of parallel lake effect snow bands streaming southeast off all five Great Lakes
Cloud streets streaming off the Great Lakes in a NOAA satellite view. Each white stripe is a band of convective snow; where a stripe meets the shore is where the belt lives. “Lake effect snow bands over the Great Lakes region” — NOAA — Public domain
City by city

Pennsylvania snowbelt cities

Each city page carries monthly NOAA normals for its named station, the local mechanism, and the live NWS product feed.

The season shape, at Erie

Monthly snowfall normals (inches), ERIE INTL AP, PA US, NOAA NCEI 1991-2020 normals. The lake effect signature: a steep November rise while the lake is warmest.
Satellite view of snow covered belts downwind of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, both lakes open water
The belts made visible: NASA MODIS, January 13, 2017. Snow-covered ground traces exactly where wind and fetch deliver lake effect off Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, with brown snow-free land upwind. “Lake Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Finger Lakes” — Jeff Schmaltz, MODIS Land Rapid Response Team, NASA GSFC — Public domain
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Live, as issued

NWS winter products active in Pennsylvania right now

Every active NWS winter product whose zones touch Pennsylvania, read live from api.weather.gov and reproduced exactly as issued, with issuer and timestamps.

Checking api.weather.gov for active winter weather products…

Why the mixed product names: for the 2017-2018 winter the NWS consolidated its lake effect products into the general winter suite. The Lake Effect Snow Warning came back on October 1, 2019, but per Service Change Notice 19-63 its use is “optional at Regional discretion” and offices may still issue Winter Storm Warnings “with the lake effect component specified in the ‘What’ section”. The old Lake Effect Snow Watch and Advisory were never reinstated. So this page passes through every winter product for the area and tags the ones whose own NWS text names lake effect.

Whiteout and travel decisions belong with the National Weather Service (weather.gov winter safety) and the Pennsylvania 511 system (511 road conditions). NWS products above are reproduced as issued.

The record book

Documented Pennsylvania lake effect events

November 28 to December 3, 2024: five days, five feet

NWS Cleveland's event review calls this "a historic lake effect snow event" across the snowbelt south and east of Lake Erie, with totals of 2 to 5 feet and a maximum of 63.8 inches at Girard, Pennsylvania. Interstate 90 closed, and the Pennsylvania National Guard assisted with rescues of stranded motorists. (NWS Cleveland event review)

Lake Erie

80%

average annual maximum ice cover; 34 of 53 winters peaked at 90% or more. The shallowest Great Lake freezes, and its snow machine stops.

Lake Ontario

29%

average annual maximum ice cover; only 7 of 53 winters even reached 50%. The deep lake stays open, and its belt keeps running.

Our averages, computed from NOAA GLERL’s daily Great Lakes ice cover record (GLICD), ice years 1973 to 2025: for each winter we take the season’s peak daily lake-averaged ice cover, then average those peaks.

A dark wall of lake effect snow advancing across Lake Erie toward the Buffalo waterfront
The leading edge of the November 2014 band bearing down on Buffalo, from the NOAA Photo Library. NWS Buffalo's summary says the edge was so sharp "many described it as a wall of snow." “Snowfall descending on the Buffalo Southtowns” — NOAA Photo Library, NWS Collection — Public domain
Common questions

Pennsylvania lake effect snow FAQ

Cars buried to their rooflines in snow at a street corner near Buffalo after the November 2014 storm
Town Line, New York, after November 2014: what 5 or more feet in three days looks like at ground level. Every belt in the Great Lakes has its own version of this photograph. “Winter Storm Knife - Town Line, NY” by Anthony Quintano, CC BY 2.0
Elsewhere

Lake effect snow in other states

Pennsylvania winter forecastNOAA's seasonal outlook, first snow timing, and snowfall normals statewide.Lake effect snow, nationwideAll the belts, the mechanism in NWS words, and the Erie versus Ontario contrast.Erie lake effect pageThe city-level cut: monthly normals, mechanism, live products.
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Snowfall normals: NOAA NCEI 1991-2020 U.S. Climate Normals, by named station (public domain). Alerts: api.weather.gov, reproduced as issued. Record events cite the NWS office write-ups linked inline. Ice statistics are our arithmetic on NOAA GLERL daily records, labeled as such. No road or safety advice of ours appears on this page.
Hero image: “Lake Erie's February Freeze” — MODIS Land Rapid Response Team, NASA GSFC — Public domain