Erie Lake Effect Snow: Season and Snowfall Normals

Q: How much snow does Erie get in a year?

104.3 inches per season, per NOAA NCEI's official 1991-2020 climate normals for ERIE INTL AP, PA US. Lake effect gradients are extreme, so nearby towns can run far higher or lower than this single station.

Q: When is lake effect snow season in Erie?

The months with a NOAA normal of at least 1 inch at ERIE INTL AP, PA US run November through April, peaking in January at 31.8 inches. The lake effect core is November through February: it starts when arctic air first crosses the still-warm lake and winds down as the water cools or, for Lake Erie, freezes.

Q: Where do these snowfall numbers come from?

From NOAA NCEI's 1991-2020 U.S. Climate Normals for ERIE INTL AP, PA US, station USW00014860, read from NCEI's public data service. They are 30 year averages, not a forecast for this winter: individual lake effect seasons swing enormously around the normal.

The calendar

Month by month snowfall in Erie

NOAA’s 1991-2020 monthly snowfall normals for ERIE INTL AP, PA US, laid out as a snow season from July to June. Lake effect climates load their totals into the cold months when the lake is still open water; watch how fast the bars rise in November and fall off late winter.

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

10

Nov

26

Dec

32

Jan

19

Feb

15

Mar

3

Apr

May

Jun

Monthly snowfall normals (inches), ERIE INTL AP, PA US, NOAA NCEI 1991-2020 U.S. Climate Normals.

Satellite view of parallel lake effect snow bands streaming southeast off all five Great Lakes — Lake effect snow bands streaming off the Great Lakes, in a NOAA satellite view. Cold air crossing warm water organizes into these parallel cloud streets, and where one comes ashore it snows hard while the next town over sees sun. “Lake effect snow bands over the Great Lakes region” — NOAA — Public domain

The mechanism

Why Erie gets lake effect snow

Pennsylvania touches the Great Lakes for barely 50 miles, and Erie makes the most of it: west-southwest winds get a long fetch up the lake before landing on the city, which is why this corner of the state averages well over twice the snowfall of Pittsburgh (104.3 versus 44.1 inches in the same NOAA normals). The belt continues east into Chautauqua County, New York, and the whole corridor shares one seasonal off switch, the freezing of Lake Erie.

The physics, in the National Weather Service’s own words: “Lake Effect snow occurs when cold air, often originating from Canada, moves across the open waters of the Great Lakes... The air rises, clouds form and grow into narrow band that produces 2 to 3 inches of snow per hour or more.” And on location: “Wind direction is a key component in determining which areas will receive lake effect snow. Heavy snow may be falling in one location, while the sun may be shining just a mile or two away in either direction.” (NWS, What is Lake Effect Snow?)

Satellite view of Lake Erie almost fully ice covered while Lake Ontario remains dark open water — February 16, 2022, from NASA's MODIS: Lake Erie nearly frozen over while Lake Ontario, upper right, stays open. Ice is the Erie belt's off switch, which is why its season loads into November through January. “Lake Erie's February Freeze” — MODIS Land Rapid Response Team, NASA GSFC — Public domain

Live, as issued

Winter weather products covering PA right now

Every active National Weather Service winter product for Pennsylvania, read live from api.weather.gov and reproduced exactly as issued. Zones are larger than the city, so confirm the listed areas include yours.

Checking api.weather.gov for active winter weather products…

Why the mixed product names: for the 2017-2018 winter the NWS consolidated its lake effect products into the general winter suite. The Lake Effect Snow Warning came back on October 1, 2019, but per Service Change Notice 19-63 its use is “optional at Regional discretion” and offices may still issue Winter Storm Warnings “with the lake effect component specified in the ‘What’ section”. The old Lake Effect Snow Watch and Advisory were never reinstated. So this page passes through every winter product for the area and tags the ones whose own NWS text names lake effect.

Whiteout and travel decisions belong with the National Weather Service (weather.gov winter safety) and the Pennsylvania 511 system (511 road conditions). NWS products above are reproduced as issued.

The season

When lake effect season runs, and what ends it

Lake effect season opens with the first arctic outbreaks over still-warm water, usually November, and the early-season events are often the most violent because the lake is warmest. What closes the season depends on the lake: shallow Lake Erie usually freezes and shuts its machine off, while deep Lake Ontario and Lake Superior stay mostly open and can produce all winter.

Lake Erie

80%

average annual maximum ice cover; 34 of 53 winters peaked at 90% or more. The shallowest Great Lake freezes, and its snow machine stops.

Lake Ontario

29%

average annual maximum ice cover; only 7 of 53 winters even reached 50%. The deep lake stays open, and its belt keeps running.

Our averages, computed from NOAA GLERL’s daily Great Lakes ice cover record (GLICD), ice years 1973 to 2025: for each winter we take the season’s peak daily lake-averaged ice cover, then average those peaks.

Cars buried to their rooflines in snow at the Broadway and Town Line Road intersection near Buffalo — Town Line, New York, after the November 2014 event: cars reduced to soft white mounds. NWS Buffalo measured up to 65 inches from the first band alone, with mere inches a few miles north, the signature gradient of a single-band event. “Winter Storm Knife - Town Line, NY” by Anthony Quintano, CC BY 2.0

Common questions

Erie lake effect snow FAQ

Why does Erie get so much snow?

Pennsylvania touches the Great Lakes for barely 50 miles, and Erie makes the most of it: west-southwest winds get a long fetch up the lake before landing on the city, which is why this corner of the state averages well over twice the snowfall of Pittsburgh (104.3 versus 44.1 inches in the same NOAA normals). The belt continues east into Chautauqua County, New York, and the whole corridor shares one seasonal off switch, the freezing of Lake Erie.

How much snow does Erie get in a year?

When is lake effect snow season in Erie?

Is there a lake effect snow warning in Erie right now?

The live panel on this page lists every active NWS winter product for the state, straight from api.weather.gov: Lake Effect Snow Warning, Winter Storm Warning and Watch, Winter Weather Advisory, Blizzard Warning, and Snow Squall Warning. Since the NWS product consolidation, a lake effect event may be covered under a generic winter product name, so all of them are shown and the ones whose NWS text names lake effect are tagged.

What is lake effect snow?

In the NWS's words: "Lake Effect snow occurs when cold air, often originating from Canada, moves across the open waters of the Great Lakes. As the cold air passes over the unfrozen and relatively warm waters of the Great Lakes, warmth and moisture are transferred into the lowest portion of the atmosphere. The air rises, clouds form and grow into narrow band that produces 2 to 3 inches of snow per hour or more." For Erie, the water in question is Lake Erie.

Where do these snowfall numbers come from?

What is the snowiest city in America?

Among large US cities the perennial contenders are Syracuse, Rochester, Buffalo and Erie. In NOAA's 1991-2020 normals used on these pages (our comparison of NCEI station figures), Syracuse's airport leads at 127.8 inches, ahead of Rochester (102.0), Erie (104.3) and Buffalo (95.4). Season by season bragging rights are tracked by the Golden Snow Globe, a privately run contest for cities over 100,000 population, and its New York sibling the Golden Snowball; both are fan projects built on NWS totals, not official NOAA rankings.

City of Buffalo boundary sign at night in wind driven lake effect snow — The city line at night during the November 2014 storm, photographed by Anthony Quintano. Inside a band, rates of 3 to 6 inches per hour with wind are what a Lake Effect Snow Warning is written for. “Historic Lake Effect Snow Hits Buffalo New York Area” by Anthony Quintano, CC BY 2.0

Elsewhere in the belts

Other snowbelt cities

Pennsylvania lake effect snowThe statewide belt map this city sits inside, with records and the season shape.Pennsylvania winter forecastNOAA's seasonal outlook for the whole winter, read for this state.Lake effect snow, nationwideEvery belt, the mechanism, and the Erie versus Ontario ice story.

Snowfall figures are NOAA NCEI 1991-2020 U.S. Climate Normals for ERIE INTL AP, PA US (public domain), refreshed with each new normals release. Alerts read live from api.weather.gov and reproduced as issued. Ice statistics computed by us from NOAA GLERL daily records and labeled as our arithmetic. No safety advice of ours appears on this page.
Hero image: “Snowfall descending on the Buffalo Southtowns” — NOAA Photo Library, NWS Collection — Public domain

Erie Lake Effect Snow

Erie snowfall, by the numbers