Kansas Turkey Hunting Forecast

“Results from the state‐space model indicated the occurrence of rain most impacted (negatively) gobbling activity”

Wightman et al. 2022, results Rain is the heaviest weather penalty in the score, because it was the largest effect in the model.

“Where the mean expected number of daily gobbles would be 21 (CrI = 15, 30) without rain, compared to 12 (CrI = 7, 22) if rain occurred.”

Wightman et al. 2022, results Rain roughly halved the gobbles heard in a morning, which is why a wet morning cannot rate above Good.

“Our findings suggest rainfall, greater wind speeds, and greater temperatures negatively affected gobbling activity, whereas increasing barometric pressure positively affected gobbling activity.”

Wightman et al. 2022, abstract Four of the five weather variables this forecast reads come straight from this sentence.

“by greater wind speed with the largest effect occurring when wind speeds exceeded 10 kilometers per hour”

Wightman et al. 2022, results The wind penalty starts where the study found the effect, at ten kilometers an hour, about six miles an hour.

“We suspect males may be less inclined to gobble as wind speeds increase because the desired outcome from calling may be limited by the ability of receptive females to hear the call and because predation risk may increase.”

Wightman et al. 2022, discussion Wind works on both ends: fewer gobbles, and less chance a bird hears your call.

“we observed an increase in barometric pressure from one day to the next resulted in increased gobbling activity”

Wightman et al. 2022, discussion A barometer higher than yesterday morning is the single best thing the weather can hand you.

“For barometric pressure (mb), we calculated the mean for each morning and then subtracted it from the prior morning to get a change in barometric pressure.”

Wightman et al. 2022, methods The score reads pressure the same way, morning against the morning before, not the raw reading.

“we conclude that this relationship is best explained by turkeys gobbling more in weather conditions not associated with storm systems.”

Wightman et al. 2022, discussion A falling barometer is a storm arriving, which is what the penalty is really reading.

“We found gobbling activity was negatively influenced by increased temperatures”

Wightman et al. 2022, results A warm morning scores lower than a cool one.

“Wild turkeys at southern latitudes may reduce gobbling at higher temperatures, but we offer that the pattern may not be similar at northern latitudes.”

Wightman et al. 2022, discussion Only the warm end of the range costs points. Nothing in the research says a cold morning suppresses gobbling.