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North Dakota Air Quality: The Seasonal Shape

Canadian smoke season. Which months are worst in North Dakota, why, and what the EPA record actually shows.

Worst stretch in the EPA record: July through September
Worst month
August
Cleanest month
February
Season type
Canadian smoke season

North Dakota air quality at a glance

EPA record, 2020 to 2024
August
worst month
6.3% of days USG or worse
fine particles
sets the index then
statewide, in August
AQI 323
worst single day
May 17, 2023
February
cleanest month
6% of days even reach Moderate

Computed from EPA's official daily AQI record for every monitored county in North Dakota, 2020 to 2024. Shares are of monitored county days, so they describe how often air somewhere in the state crossed each line.

The calendar

Which months are worst for air quality in North Dakota

The chart below is five years of EPA's regulatory monitoring record, 2020 to 2024, folded into a single year: for each month, the share of monitored days in each official AQI category, in EPA's exact colors. Under each bar is the pollutant that most often set the index that month, which is the mechanism in one word: ozone is a sunshine chemistry problem, PM2.5 in winter is a trapped-air problem, PM2.5 in late summer is usually smoke.

Share of monitored days in each EPA AQI category by month, all North Dakota counties with monitors, 2020 to 2024. Source: EPA Air Quality System daily AQI files.

The three worst months, ranked

August

6.3% of monitored days reached Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups or worse, and 41% at least Moderate. The index was most often set by fine particles (PM2.5). Worst single day: AQI 184 on August 16, 2021.

September

5.5% of monitored days reached Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups or worse, and 33% at least Moderate. The index was most often set by fine particles (PM2.5). Worst single day: AQI 179 on September 3, 2023.

July

5.4% of monitored days reached Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups or worse, and 46% at least Moderate. The index was most often set by fine particles (PM2.5). Worst single day: AQI 211 on July 30, 2021.

Ranked by share of days reaching Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups or worse, the first category EPA ties to health effects for anyone. A single bad fire year inside the window can move a month; that is not noise, that is what living with a smoke era means.

The mechanism

Why North Dakota air goes bad when it does

North Dakota shares Minnesota's exposure: the border with burning boreal Canada. July through September carries most of the risk, and in heavy smoke years the state's normally excellent air can spend weeks in Moderate or worse.

  • Wildfire smoke from the Canadian prairie provinces and boreal forest directly north.
  • Oil field flaring and dust in the Bakken shaping local baselines.
  • A modest summer ozone signal.

The data shows the handoff plainly: in midsummer the index in North Dakota is most often set by fine particles (PM2.5), while in the depths of winter it is ozone. Two different problems wearing one scale.

Satellite view of wildfire smoke filling every mountain valley across a wide stretch of the northern Rockies, with active fire detections marked in red
Wildfire smoke filling the valleys of the Sawtooth Range and Salmon River Mountains, photographed by NASA's MODIS on September 12, 2022. This is what a smoke episode looks like from orbit: not a plume but a flood, following the terrain. The same valley-filling behavior drives North Dakota's smoke season. “Smoke Shrouds the Sawtooth Range and Salmon River Mountains (MODIS 2022-09-12)” — MODIS Land Rapid Response Team, NASA GSFC — Public domain
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Live, as issued

Air quality alerts in North Dakota right now

These are the active National Weather Service air quality products whose zones touch North Dakota, reproduced as issued with the issuing office attached. An Air Quality Alert is written by or for your state's air agency; NWS also issues its own smoke, dust and stagnation advisories. Each is reproduced in full.

Checking api.weather.gov for active air quality alert products…

Today's AQI is at AirNow

EPA's AirNow page for North Dakota publishes the current reading and the official forecast, fed by the same agencies whose alerts appear above. This page carries the other half of the picture: which months are like this every year, and why.

EPA air sampling instruments on tripods inside a fenced monitoring site, with a technician in an EPA contractor shirt walking past
EPA air sampling stations at a monitoring site. Every number on this page traces back to instruments like these: the monthly chart is computed from EPA's official daily AQI record for every monitored North Dakota county, 2020 to 2024. “EPA Air Sampling Stations” — US EPA — Public domain
Reading the index

The AQI scale, in EPA's words

Every category on this page uses EPA's official names, ranges and colors, quoted rather than paraphrased. The line that matters most for planning is 101: Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups, the first category EPA ties to health effects, and the threshold the worst-month ranking above counts.

AQICategoryWhat it means
0 to 50GoodAir quality is satisfactory, and air pollution poses little or no risk.
51 to 100ModerateAir quality is acceptable. However, there may be a risk for some people, particularly those who are unusually sensitive to air pollution.
101 to 150Unhealthy for Sensitive GroupsMembers of sensitive groups may experience health effects. The general public is less likely to be affected.
151 to 200UnhealthySome members of the general public may experience health effects; members of sensitive groups may experience more serious health effects.
201 to 300Very UnhealthyHealth alert: The risk of health effects is increased for everyone.
301 and higherHazardousHealth warning of emergency conditions: everyone is more likely to be affected.

Category names, index ranges and colors are reproduced exactly from the US EPA, Technical Assistance Document for the Reporting of Daily Air Quality (EPA-454/B-24-002, May 2024), Tables 1 and 2. Meanings quoted from AirNow.gov, AQI Basics.

Who EPA means by sensitive groups

When this pollutant has an AQI above 100EPA lists these sensitive groups
OzonePeople with lung disease, such as asthma; children, including teenagers; people who are active outdoors; and older adults.
Fine particle pollution (PM2.5) and particle pollution (PM10)People with heart or lung disease; older adults; and children, including teenagers. In addition, some minority groups, people with lower incomes, and outdoor workers may experience higher exposure that can worsen underlying health conditions.
Carbon monoxide (CO)People with heart disease.
Nitrogen dioxide (NO2)People with lung disease, such as asthma; children, including teenagers; and older adults.
Sulfur dioxide (SO2)People with asthma; children, including teenagers; and older adults.

What EPA says sensitive groups should do on an orange day

Sensitive groups: Make outdoor activities shorter and less intense. Take more breaks. Watch for symptoms such as coughing or shortness of breath. Plan outdoor activities in the morning when ozone is lower. People with asthma: Follow your asthma action plan and keep quick-relief medicine handy.

EPA cautionary statement for Ozone (8-hour), Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups, quoted from the US EPA, Technical Assistance Document for the Reporting of Daily Air Quality (EPA-454/B-24-002, May 2024), Table 5.

Sensitive groups: Make outdoor activities shorter and less intense. It's OK to be active outdoors but take more breaks. Watch for symptoms such as coughing or shortness of breath. People with asthma: Follow your asthma action plan and keep quick relief medicine handy. People with heart disease: Symptoms such as palpitations, shortness of breath, or unusual fatigue may indicate a serious problem. If you have any of these, contact your health care provider.

EPA cautionary statement for PM2.5 (24-hour), Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups, quoted from the US EPA, Technical Assistance Document for the Reporting of Daily Air Quality (EPA-454/B-24-002, May 2024), Table 5.

Everything above is EPA’s language, quoted. On any day that matters, the decision belongs with the official product for your location and your own clinician.

San Francisco Bay Bridge and downtown skyline at midday under a dark orange sky during the September 2020 wildfire smoke event
September 9, 2020: the Bay Bridge at midday under smoke from the North Complex fire. The orange sky day became the West's reference point for how completely a smoke season can rewrite daylight. “North Complex smoke in San Francisco - Bay Bridge and Financial District” by Christopher Michel, CC BY 2.0
Common questions

North Dakota air quality FAQ

An airport control tower barely visible through dense orange wildfire smoke during the June 2023 Canadian smoke event over the New York area
The New York City area at midday on June 7, 2023, under Canadian wildfire smoke. The episode ended the idea that distance from the fire belt is protection: every calendar on this site now carries a smoke wildcard. “Quebec Canada Wildfire Smoke Consumes New Jersey and New York City June 7 2023” by Anthony Quintano, CC BY 2.0