Atlantic Flyway Duck Forecast: Where Birds Move

Q: What states are in the Atlantic Flyway?

17 states hold a waterfowl season in the Atlantic Flyway: Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, West Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida. The eastern seaboard corridor, Maine to Florida, inland to West Virginia.

Q: When does duck season open in the Atlantic Flyway?

The earliest opener in the flyway is Sep 28 in Maine, and the last day anywhere in it is Jan 31 in New York. Each state picks its own dates and zones inside the federal framework, so the 17 state pages carry the ones that apply where you hunt.

Q: Where does the Atlantic Flyway freeze first?

Maine sits furthest north in the flyway, at Caribou, where a normal year turns cold about Nov 15. Florida sits furthest south, at Tallahassee, where the coldest normal daily mean is about 51 degrees. 14 of the 17 states reach freezing or a 28 degree night in a normal year.

Q: How does the forecast rate a day?

Each day starts at the middle and moves on two groups of readings. Snow on the ground and the freeze, counted in consecutive days, are the two that make birds leave, and they carry up to 34 points between them. The front, the wind direction, the wind speed, the sky and the barometer decide whether birds already there fly and decoy, and they are held to 20 points together, because a clearing north wind behind a front is one event and not five. The total lands on Slow, Fair, Good, Great or Prime, and every day shows its own points.

Q: How many ducks were counted for the Atlantic Flyway this year?

The USFWS breeding survey reports by crew area rather than by flyway. The survey reports mallards in eastern North America as one figure. It recorded: “The estimated abundance of mallards in eastern North America was 0.9 ± 0.09 million, which was similar to the 2025 estimate and 23% below the long-term average.” Which flyway a given crew area’s birds enter is a band recovery question, so the number is given as the survey gives it.

17

States in the flyway

Northeast, Southeast

Sep 28

First duck opener

Maine, 2026-27

Jan 31

Last day open

New York, 2026-27

14 of 17

States that freeze

Maine at the top, Florida at the bottom

This week

The Atlantic Flyway week, north to south

The eastern seaboard corridor, Maine to Florida, inland to West Virginia. Every state in it, ordered coldest first, with the best morning this week at its own NOAA reference points and the freeze date those normals give. A push shows up at the top of the list days before it reaches the bottom, which is the whole reason to read a flyway as one thing.

State, north to south	Duck zones	Duck season spans	Freezes from	Coldest normal day
Maine	3	Sep 28 to Jan 5	Nov 15	9F at Caribou
Vermont	3	Oct 10 to Dec 27	Nov 24	15F at Morrisville
New Hampshire	3	Oct 2 to Jan 17	Nov 23	15F at Berlin
New York	5	Oct 10 to Jan 31	Nov 22	16F at Lake Placid
Massachusetts	3	Oct 10 to Jan 27	Dec 25	29F at Boston
Pennsylvania	4	Oct 10 to Jan 18	Dec 16	27F at Erie
Connecticut	2	Oct 10 to Jan 19	Dec 2	21F at Norfolk
Rhode Island	1	Oct 9 to Jan 24	Dec 11	25F at Foster
New Jersey	3	Oct 10 to Jan 29	Dec 10	25F at Sussex
Delaware	1	Oct 31 to Jan 31	Dec 18	32F at Wilmington
Maryland	2	Oct 3 to Jan 30	Dec 8	25F at Oakland
West Virginia	1	Oct 3 to Jan 31	Dec 17	29F at Elkins
Virginia	1	Oct 9 to Jan 31	Dec 29	36F at Richmond
North Carolina	2	Oct 15 to Jan 30	stays above it at Asheville	37F at Asheville
South Carolina	1	Nov 21 to Jan 31	stays above it at Greenville	42F at Greenville
Georgia	1	Nov 21 to Jan 31	Dec 14	37F at Blairsville
Florida	1	Nov 21 to Jan 31	stays above it at Tallahassee	51F at Tallahassee

Prime80 and up
Great68 and up
Good55 and up
Fair40 and up
Slow0 and up

The two ends

Caribou and Tallahassee this week

The same seven days at the top and the bottom of the corridor, rated side by side. Maine sits at the cold end and Florida at the mild end, and the gap between their two weeks is the push in transit.

Reference point	Best morning this week	What carries it	Birds
Caribou, ME	Loads as you scroll	–	–
Tallahassee, FL	Loads as you scroll	–	–

What was counted

The Atlantic Flyway birds this year, from the federal surveys

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service flies the Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey every May and publishes the counts in its annual Waterfowl Population Status report. Those numbers set how many birds are in the corridor to begin with; the week ahead decides when they move.

Eastern mallards flat on the year

Mallards in eastern North America came to 0.9 million, level with 2025 and 23 percent below the long run average.

“The estimated abundance of mallards in eastern North America was 0.9 ± 0.09 million, which was similar to the 2025 estimate and 23% below the long-term average.”
Waterfowl Population Status, 2026, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, read 2026-11-01

Across the continent

Ponds up this spring, still under average

The May pond count across Prairie Canada and the northcentral states came to 4.8 million, 14 percent above 2025 and 9 percent below the long run average.

“The total pond estimate (Prairie Canada and northcentral U.S. combined) was 4.8 ± 0.2 million, which was 14% above the 2025 estimate of 4.2 ± 0.1 million, and 9% below the long-term average (5.2 ± 0.03 million; Table 1, Figure 3).”
Waterfowl Population Status, 2026, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, read 2026-11-01

Nine goose and swan populations trending down

Of 26 goose and tundra swan populations, nine showed a significant downward trend over the most recent ten years.

“Of the 26 goose and tundra swan (Cygnus columbianus) populations, the primary monitoring indices for 9 of these populations had significant (P < 0.05) negative trends (% change per year) during the most recent 10-year period”
Waterfowl Population Status, 2026, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, read 2026-11-01

The survey reports mallards in eastern North America as one figure.

Hundreds of mallards, snow geese and Canada geese rafted on open blue water in low sun, with a sheet of ice and a bare farm shoreline across the back of the lake — Mallards, snow geese and Canada geese packed onto what is left of the open water at Lake Andes in South Dakota, the ice already across the far end. Birds leave on cold and snow, not on the calendar, which is why the forecast carries a running weather severity score beside the week and says what it means for the birds on hand. “Waterfowl on Lake Andes; Lake Andes National Wildlife Refuge (52390894441)”, USFWS Mountain Prairie, Public domain

17 states

Every Atlantic Flyway state, rated

Each state page carries the week at its own reference points, the duck zones open across those days, its freeze normals and its agency’s source.

Maine: 3 duck zones, freezing from about Nov 15
New Hampshire: 3 duck zones, freezing from about Nov 23
Vermont: 3 duck zones, freezing from about Nov 24
Massachusetts: 3 duck zones, freezing from about Dec 25
Connecticut: 2 duck zones, freezing from about Dec 2
Rhode Island: 1 duck zone, freezing from about Dec 11
New York: 5 duck zones, freezing from about Nov 22
New Jersey: 3 duck zones, freezing from about Dec 10
Pennsylvania: 4 duck zones, freezing from about Dec 16
Delaware: 1 duck zone, freezing from about Dec 18
Maryland: 2 duck zones, freezing from about Dec 8
Virginia: 1 duck zone, freezing from about Dec 29
West Virginia: 1 duck zone, freezing from about Dec 17
North Carolina: 2 duck zones, open water through the season
South Carolina: 1 duck zone, open water through the season
Georgia: 1 duck zone, freezing from about Dec 14
Florida: 1 duck zone, open water through the season

Atlantic Flyway questions

What states are in the Atlantic Flyway?

When does duck season open in the Atlantic Flyway?

Where does the Atlantic Flyway freeze first?

How does the forecast rate a day?

Each day starts at the middle and moves on two groups of readings. Snow on the ground and the freeze, counted in consecutive days, are the two that make birds leave, and they carry up to 34 points between them. The front, the wind direction, the wind speed, the sky and the barometer decide whether birds already there fly and decoy, and they are held to 20 points together, because a clearing north wind behind a front is one event and not five. The total lands on Slow, Fair, Good, Great or Prime, and every day shows its own points.

How many ducks were counted for the Atlantic Flyway this year?

The USFWS breeding survey reports by crew area rather than by flyway. The survey reports mallards in eastern North America as one figure. It recorded: “The estimated abundance of mallards in eastern North America was 0.9 ± 0.09 million, which was similar to the 2025 estimate and 23% below the long-term average.” Which flyway a given crew area’s birds enter is a band recovery question, so the number is given as the survey gives it.

The other three flyways

Mississippi Flyway: The Mississippi Flyway follows the river system from the Great Lakes to the Gulf.
Central Flyway: The Central Flyway runs the plains from the Dakotas and Montana down through Texas.
Pacific Flyway: The Pacific Flyway runs from Alaska down the coast states and through the Great Basin.

More for the season

Duck season dates by stateEvery state’s 2026-27 duck and goose dates and zones, quoted from its agency.Duck migration trackerWhere the birds are being reported now, and how hard it has frozen to the north.Snow goose migrationThe spring push north and the conservation order seasons that follow it.Deer movement forecastThe same seven days rated for daylight deer movement.

Season dates and zones come from each state agency by way of the waterfowl season pages, the freeze dates from the NOAA 1991 to 2020 daily climate normals, read 2026-11-01, and the survey numbers from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service reports quoted above. The 2026-27 dates, zones, bag limits and shooting hours that govern are the ones on your own state agency’s page. A rating reads the weather, and food, habitat and hunting pressure move birds too. The forecast hub rates any ZIP code.