Pacific Flyway Duck Forecast: Where Birds Move

Q: What states are in the Pacific Flyway?

8 states hold a waterfowl season in the Pacific Flyway: Washington, Oregon, California, Idaho, Utah, Nevada, Arizona, Alaska. The western corridor from Alaska down the coast states and Great Basin.

Q: When does duck season open in the Pacific Flyway?

The earliest opener in the flyway is Sep 1 in Alaska, and the last day anywhere in it is Jan 31 in Washington. Each state picks its own dates and zones inside the federal framework, so the 8 state pages carry the ones that apply where you hunt.

Q: Where does the Pacific Flyway freeze first?

Alaska sits furthest north in the flyway, at Fairbanks, where a normal year turns cold about Oct 7. Arizona sits furthest south, at Flagstaff, where the coldest normal daily mean is about 29 degrees. 8 of the 8 states reach freezing or a 28 degree night in a normal year.

Q: How does the forecast rate a day?

Each day starts at the middle and moves on two groups of readings. Snow on the ground and the freeze, counted in consecutive days, are the two that make birds leave, and they carry up to 34 points between them. The front, the wind direction, the wind speed, the sky and the barometer decide whether birds already there fly and decoy, and they are held to 20 points together, because a clearing north wind behind a front is one event and not five. The total lands on Slow, Fair, Good, Great or Prime, and every day shows its own points.

Q: How many ducks were counted for the Pacific Flyway this year?

The USFWS breeding survey reports by crew area rather than by flyway. Alaska is both a flyway state and a survey crew area. It recorded: “In the Alaska—Yukon Territory—Old Crow Flats crea area, the total duck estimate was 2.3 ± 0.1 million. This estimate was similar to the 2025 estimate and 37% below the longterm average of 3.6 ± 0.02 million.” Which flyway a given crew area’s birds enter is a band recovery question, so the number is given as the survey gives it.

8

States in the flyway

West, Rockies, Southwest

Sep 1

First duck opener

Alaska, 2026-27

Jan 31

Last day open

Washington, 2026-27

8 of 8

States that freeze

Alaska at the top, Arizona at the bottom

This week

The Pacific Flyway week, north to south

The western corridor from Alaska down the coast states and Great Basin. Every state in it, ordered coldest first, with the best morning this week at its own NOAA reference points and the freeze date those normals give. A push shows up at the top of the list days before it reaches the bottom, which is the whole reason to read a flyway as one thing.

State, north to south	Duck zones	Duck season spans	Freezes from	Coldest normal day
Alaska	5	Sep 1 to Jan 22	Oct 7	-9F at Fairbanks
Idaho	3	Oct 3 to Jan 31	Dec 3	29F at Coeur d'Alene
Washington	1	Oct 17 to Jan 31	Nov 26	26F at Spokane
Oregon	2	Oct 10 to Jan 31	Dec 4	30F at Portland
Utah	2	Oct 3 to Jan 23	Nov 22	22F at Logan
Nevada	4	Sep 26 to Jan 31	Nov 22	25F at Elko
California	5	Oct 3 to Jan 31	Nov 30	29F at Tahoe City
Arizona	1	Oct 23 to Jan 31	Nov 30	29F at Flagstaff

Prime80 and up
Great68 and up
Good55 and up
Fair40 and up
Slow0 and up

The two ends

Fairbanks and Sacramento this week

The same seven days at the top and the bottom of the corridor, rated side by side. Alaska sits at the cold end and Arizona at the mild end, and the gap between their two weeks is the push in transit.

Reference point	Best morning this week	What carries it	Birds
Fairbanks, AK	Loads as you scroll	–	–
Sacramento, CA	Loads as you scroll	–	–

What was counted

The Pacific Flyway birds this year, from the federal surveys

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service flies the Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey every May and publishes the counts in its annual Waterfowl Population Status report. Those numbers set how many birds are in the corridor to begin with; the week ahead decides when they move.

Alaska and the Yukon well under average

Alaska with the Yukon and Old Crow Flats counted 2.3 million ducks, level with 2025 and 37 percent below the long run average.

“In the Alaska—Yukon Territory—Old Crow Flats crea area, the total duck estimate was 2.3 ± 0.1 million. This estimate was similar to the 2025 estimate and 37% below the longterm average of 3.6 ± 0.02 million.”
Waterfowl Population Status, 2026, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, read 2026-11-01

Across the continent

The mallard count is a quarter under average

Mallards were counted at 5.9 million, down 11 percent on 2025 and 26 percent on the long run average.

“Estimated total mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) abundance was 5.9 ± 0.2 million, which was 11% below the 2025 estimate and 26% below the long-term average of 7.9 ± 0.04 million.”
Waterfowl Population Status, 2026, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, read 2026-11-01

Nine goose and swan populations trending down

Of 26 goose and tundra swan populations, nine showed a significant downward trend over the most recent ten years.

“Of the 26 goose and tundra swan (Cygnus columbianus) populations, the primary monitoring indices for 9 of these populations had significant (P < 0.05) negative trends (% change per year) during the most recent 10-year period”
Waterfowl Population Status, 2026, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, read 2026-11-01

Alaska is both a flyway state and a survey crew area.

Hundreds of mallards, snow geese and Canada geese rafted on open blue water in low sun, with a sheet of ice and a bare farm shoreline across the back of the lake — Mallards, snow geese and Canada geese packed onto what is left of the open water at Lake Andes in South Dakota, the ice already across the far end. Birds leave on cold and snow, not on the calendar, which is why the forecast carries a running weather severity score beside the week and says what it means for the birds on hand. “Waterfowl on Lake Andes; Lake Andes National Wildlife Refuge (52390894441)”, USFWS Mountain Prairie, Public domain

8 states

Every Pacific Flyway state, rated

Each state page carries the week at its own reference points, the duck zones open across those days, its freeze normals and its agency’s source.

Washington: 1 duck zone, freezing from about Nov 26
Oregon: 2 duck zones, freezing from about Dec 4
California: 5 duck zones, freezing from about Nov 30
Idaho: 3 duck zones, freezing from about Dec 3
Utah: 2 duck zones, freezing from about Nov 22
Nevada: 4 duck zones, freezing from about Nov 22
Arizona: 1 duck zone, freezing from about Nov 30
Alaska: 5 duck zones, freezing from about Oct 7

Pacific Flyway questions

What states are in the Pacific Flyway?

When does duck season open in the Pacific Flyway?

Where does the Pacific Flyway freeze first?

How does the forecast rate a day?

Each day starts at the middle and moves on two groups of readings. Snow on the ground and the freeze, counted in consecutive days, are the two that make birds leave, and they carry up to 34 points between them. The front, the wind direction, the wind speed, the sky and the barometer decide whether birds already there fly and decoy, and they are held to 20 points together, because a clearing north wind behind a front is one event and not five. The total lands on Slow, Fair, Good, Great or Prime, and every day shows its own points.

How many ducks were counted for the Pacific Flyway this year?

The USFWS breeding survey reports by crew area rather than by flyway. Alaska is both a flyway state and a survey crew area. It recorded: “In the Alaska—Yukon Territory—Old Crow Flats crea area, the total duck estimate was 2.3 ± 0.1 million. This estimate was similar to the 2025 estimate and 37% below the longterm average of 3.6 ± 0.02 million.” Which flyway a given crew area’s birds enter is a band recovery question, so the number is given as the survey gives it.

The other three flyways

Atlantic Flyway: The Atlantic Flyway runs the seaboard from Maine to Florida and reaches inland to West Virginia.
Mississippi Flyway: The Mississippi Flyway follows the river system from the Great Lakes to the Gulf.
Central Flyway: The Central Flyway runs the plains from the Dakotas and Montana down through Texas.

More for the season

Duck season dates by stateEvery state’s 2026-27 duck and goose dates and zones, quoted from its agency.Duck migration trackerWhere the birds are being reported now, and how hard it has frozen to the north.Snow goose migrationThe spring push north and the conservation order seasons that follow it.Deer movement forecastThe same seven days rated for daylight deer movement.

Season dates and zones come from each state agency by way of the waterfowl season pages, the freeze dates from the NOAA 1991 to 2020 daily climate normals, read 2026-11-01, and the survey numbers from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service reports quoted above. The 2026-27 dates, zones, bag limits and shooting hours that govern are the ones on your own state agency’s page. A rating reads the weather, and food, habitat and hunting pressure move birds too. The forecast hub rates any ZIP code.