The Central Flyway runs the plains from the Dakotas and Montana down through Texas.

Central Flyway Duck Hunting Forecast

Q: What states are in the Central Flyway?

10 states hold a waterfowl season in the Central Flyway: Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, North Dakota, Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, New Mexico. The Great Plains corridor from the Dakotas and Montana down through Texas.

Q: When does duck season open in the Central Flyway?

The earliest opener in the flyway is Sep 26 in South Dakota, and the last day anywhere in it is Jan 31 in Texas. Each state picks its own dates and zones inside the federal framework, so the 10 state pages carry the ones that apply where you hunt.

Q: Where does the Central Flyway freeze first?

North Dakota sits furthest north in the flyway, at Minot, where a normal year turns cold about Nov 7. Texas sits furthest south, at Amarillo, where the coldest normal daily mean is about 36 degrees. 10 of the 10 states reach freezing or a 28 degree night in a normal year.

The week ahead across all 10 states in the corridor, each rated Slow to Prime for duck and goose movement from the snow on the ground, the freeze counted in days, the front, the wind and the barometer.

States in the flyway

Southwest, Midwest, Rockies

Sep 26

First duck opener

South Dakota, 2026-27

Jan 31

Last day open

Texas, 2026-27

10 of 10

States that freeze

North Dakota at the top, New Mexico at the bottom

This week

The Central Flyway week, north to south

The Great Plains corridor from the Dakotas and Montana down through Texas. Every state in it, ordered coldest first, with the best morning this week at its own NOAA reference points and the freeze date those normals give. A push shows up at the top of the list days before it reaches the bottom, which is the whole reason to read a flyway as one thing.

State, north to south	Duck zones	Duck season spans	Freezes from	Coldest normal day
North Dakota	2	Sep 26 to Jan 3	Nov 7	9F at Minot
Montanapart of the state is in the Pacific Flyway	3	Oct 3 to Jan 19	Nov 19	23F at Missoula
South Dakota	4	Sep 26 to Jan 14	Nov 11	12F at Aberdeen
Wyomingpart of the state is in the Pacific Flyway	4	Sep 26 to Jan 31	Nov 8	17F at Jackson
Nebraska	3	Oct 3 to Jan 27	Nov 24	25F at Scottsbluff
Coloradopart of the state is in the Pacific Flyway	5	Oct 3 to Jan 31	Dec 1	29F at Denver
Kansas	4	Oct 10 to Jan 31	Dec 2	29F at Goodland
Oklahoma	2	Oct 10 to Jan 31	Dec 25	37F at Tulsa
New Mexicopart of the state is in the Pacific Flyway	3	Oct 10 to Jan 31	Dec 4	29F at Santa Fe
Texas	3	Oct 24 to Jan 31	Nov 27	36F at Amarillo

Prime80 and up
Great68 and up
Good55 and up
Fair40 and up
Slow0 and up

The two ends

Minot and Dallas-Fort Worth this week

The same seven days at the top and the bottom of the corridor, rated side by side. North Dakota sits at the cold end and New Mexico at the mild end, and the gap between their two weeks is the push in transit.

Reference point	Best morning this week	What carries it	Birds
Minot, ND	Loads as you scroll	–	–
Dallas-Fort Worth, TX	Loads as you scroll	–	–

What was counted

The Central Flyway birds this year, from the federal surveys

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service flies the Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey every May and publishes the counts in its annual Waterfowl Population Status report. Those numbers set how many birds are in the corridor to begin with; the week ahead decides when they move.

The eastern Dakotas fell hardest

The eastern Dakotas counted 3.5 million ducks, a quarter below 2025 and a third below the long run average.

“In the eastern Dakotas, the total duck estimate (3.5 ± 0.2 million) was 24% below the 2025 estimate and 33% below the long-term average (5.3 ± 0.04 million).”
Waterfowl Population Status, 2026, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, read 2026-11-01

Montana and the western Dakotas also down

Montana with the western Dakotas counted 1.6 million ducks, 13 percent below 2025 and 11 percent below the long run average.

“The total duck estimate for the Montana—western Dakotas crew area was 1.6 ± 0.08 million, which was 13% below the 2025 estimate and 11% below the long term average of 1.8 ± 0.02 million.”
Waterfowl Population Status, 2026, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, read 2026-11-01

Across the continent

Ponds up this spring, still under average

The May pond count across Prairie Canada and the northcentral states came to 4.8 million, 14 percent above 2025 and 9 percent below the long run average.

“The total pond estimate (Prairie Canada and northcentral U.S. combined) was 4.8 ± 0.2 million, which was 14% above the 2025 estimate of 4.2 ± 0.1 million, and 9% below the long-term average (5.2 ± 0.03 million; Table 1, Figure 3).”
Waterfowl Population Status, 2026, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, read 2026-11-01

The mallard count is a quarter under average

Mallards were counted at 5.9 million, down 11 percent on 2025 and 26 percent on the long run average.

“Estimated total mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) abundance was 5.9 ± 0.2 million, which was 11% below the 2025 estimate and 26% below the long-term average of 7.9 ± 0.04 million.”
Waterfowl Population Status, 2026, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, read 2026-11-01

Pintails are the count to watch

Northern pintails held at 2.0 million, level with 2025 and 48 percent under the long run average.

“The northern pintail (Anas acuta) estimate was 2.0 ± 0.1 million, which was similar to the 2025 estimate of 2.2 ± 0.2 million and 48% below the long-term average of 3.8 ± 0.03 million.”
Waterfowl Population Status, 2026, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, read 2026-11-01

Two of the survey crew areas sit inside the flyway, in the Dakotas and Montana.

Hundreds of mallards, snow geese and Canada geese rafted on open blue water in low sun, with a sheet of ice and a bare farm shoreline across the back of the lake — Mallards, snow geese and Canada geese packed onto what is left of the open water at Lake Andes in South Dakota, the ice already across the far end. Birds leave on cold and snow, not on the calendar, which is why the forecast carries a running weather severity score beside the week and says what it means for the birds on hand. “Waterfowl on Lake Andes; Lake Andes National Wildlife Refuge (52390894441)”, USFWS Mountain Prairie, Public domain

10 states

Every Central Flyway state, rated

Each state page carries the week at its own reference points, the duck zones open across those days, its freeze normals and its agency’s source. Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, New Mexico are split between flyways, so the zone a marsh sits in decides which framework its season follows.

Texas: 3 duck zones, freezing from about Nov 27
Oklahoma: 2 duck zones, freezing from about Dec 25
Kansas: 4 duck zones, freezing from about Dec 2
Nebraska: 3 duck zones, freezing from about Nov 24
South Dakota: 4 duck zones, freezing from about Nov 11
North Dakota: 2 duck zones, freezing from about Nov 7
Montana: 3 duck zones, freezing from about Nov 19, partly Pacific Flyway
Wyoming: 4 duck zones, freezing from about Nov 8, partly Pacific Flyway
Colorado: 5 duck zones, freezing from about Dec 1, partly Pacific Flyway
New Mexico: 3 duck zones, freezing from about Dec 4, partly Pacific Flyway

Central Flyway questions

What states are in the Central Flyway?

When does duck season open in the Central Flyway?

Where does the Central Flyway freeze first?

How does the forecast rate a day?

Each day starts at the middle and moves on two groups of readings. Snow on the ground and the freeze, counted in consecutive days, are the two that make birds leave, and they carry up to 34 points between them. The front, the wind direction, the wind speed, the sky and the barometer decide whether birds already there fly and decoy, and they are held to 20 points together, because a clearing north wind behind a front is one event and not five. The total lands on Slow, Fair, Good, Great or Prime, and every day shows its own points.

How many ducks were counted for the Central Flyway this year?

The USFWS breeding survey reports by crew area rather than by flyway. Two of the survey crew areas sit inside the flyway, in the Dakotas and Montana. It recorded: “In the eastern Dakotas, the total duck estimate (3.5 ± 0.2 million) was 24% below the 2025 estimate and 33% below the long-term average (5.3 ± 0.04 million).” Which flyway a given crew area’s birds enter is a band recovery question, so the number is given as the survey gives it.

The other three flyways

Atlantic Flyway: The Atlantic Flyway runs the seaboard from Maine to Florida and reaches inland to West Virginia.
Mississippi Flyway: The Mississippi Flyway follows the river system from the Great Lakes to the Gulf.
Pacific Flyway: The Pacific Flyway runs from Alaska down the coast states and through the Great Basin.

More for the season

Duck season dates by stateEvery state’s 2026-27 duck and goose dates and zones, quoted from its agency.Duck migration trackerWhere the birds are being reported now, and how hard it has frozen to the north.Snow goose migrationThe spring push north and the conservation order seasons that follow it.Deer movement forecastThe same seven days rated for daylight deer movement.

Season dates and zones come from each state agency by way of the waterfowl season pages, the freeze dates from the NOAA 1991 to 2020 daily climate normals, read 2026-11-01, and the survey numbers from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service reports quoted above. The 2026-27 dates, zones, bag limits and shooting hours that govern are the ones on your own state agency’s page. A rating reads the weather, and food, habitat and hunting pressure move birds too. The forecast hub rates any ZIP code.