Mississippi Flyway Duck Forecast: Where Birds Move

Q: What states are in the Mississippi Flyway?

14 states hold a waterfowl season in the Mississippi Flyway: Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas, Missouri, Iowa. The continent's busiest duck corridor, following the Mississippi River system.

Q: When does duck season open in the Mississippi Flyway?

The earliest opener in the flyway is Sep 26 in Michigan, and the last day anywhere in it is Jan 31 in Alabama. Each state picks its own dates and zones inside the federal framework, so the 14 state pages carry the ones that apply where you hunt.

Q: Where does the Mississippi Flyway freeze first?

Minnesota sits furthest north in the flyway, at International Falls, where a normal year turns cold about Nov 5. Louisiana sits furthest south, at Shreveport, where the coldest normal daily mean is about 46 degrees. 11 of the 14 states reach freezing or a 28 degree night in a normal year.

Q: How does the forecast rate a day?

Each day starts at the middle and moves on two groups of readings. Snow on the ground and the freeze, counted in consecutive days, are the two that make birds leave, and they carry up to 34 points between them. The front, the wind direction, the wind speed, the sky and the barometer decide whether birds already there fly and decoy, and they are held to 20 points together, because a clearing north wind behind a front is one event and not five. The total lands on Slow, Fair, Good, Great or Prime, and every day shows its own points.

Q: How many ducks were counted for the Mississippi Flyway this year?

The USFWS breeding survey reports by crew area rather than by flyway. The survey has no crew area inside the flyway, so the continental figures stand. The continental figures it published are on the flyway page above, quoted as the survey gives them.

14

States in the flyway

Southeast, Midwest

Sep 26

First duck opener

Michigan, 2026-27

Jan 31

Last day open

Alabama, 2026-27

11 of 14

States that freeze

Minnesota at the top, Louisiana at the bottom

This week

The Mississippi Flyway week, north to south

The continent's busiest duck corridor, following the Mississippi River system. Every state in it, ordered coldest first, with the best morning this week at its own NOAA reference points and the freeze date those normals give. A push shows up at the top of the list days before it reaches the bottom, which is the whole reason to read a flyway as one thing.

State, north to south	Duck zones	Duck season spans	Freezes from	Coldest normal day
Minnesota	3	Sep 26 to Dec 6	Nov 5	4F at International Falls
Michigan	3	Sep 26 to Dec 27	Nov 22	18F at Marquette
Wisconsin	3	Sep 26 to Dec 15	Nov 17	14F at Wausau
Iowa	3	Oct 3 to Dec 22	Nov 23	18F at Decorah
Illinois	3	Oct 24 to Jan 24	Dec 3	23F at Chicago
Ohio	3	Oct 17 to Jan 31	Dec 16	28F at Cleveland
Indiana	3	Oct 24 to Jan 24	Dec 7	25F at Fort Wayne
Missouri	3	Oct 31 to Jan 31	Dec 12	29F at Kansas City
Kentucky	1	Nov 26 to Jan 31	Dec 25	35F at Louisville
Tennessee	1	Nov 28 to Jan 31	Dec 13	37F at Nashville
Arkansas	1	Nov 21 to Jan 31	Dec 9	35F at Fayetteville
Alabama	1	Nov 27 to Jan 31	stays above it at Huntsville	41F at Huntsville
Mississippi	1	Nov 27 to Jan 31	stays above it at Tupelo	41F at Tupelo
Louisiana	2	Nov 14 to Jan 31	stays above it at Shreveport	46F at Shreveport

Prime80 and up
Great68 and up
Good55 and up
Fair40 and up
Slow0 and up

The two ends

International Falls and New Orleans this week

The same seven days at the top and the bottom of the corridor, rated side by side. Minnesota sits at the cold end and Louisiana at the mild end, and the gap between their two weeks is the push in transit.

Reference point	Best morning this week	What carries it	Birds
International Falls, MN	Loads as you scroll	–	–
New Orleans, LA	Loads as you scroll	–	–

What was counted

The Mississippi Flyway birds this year, from the federal surveys

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service flies the Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey every May and publishes the counts in its annual Waterfowl Population Status report. Those numbers set how many birds are in the corridor to begin with; the week ahead decides when they move.

Ponds up this spring, still under average

The May pond count across Prairie Canada and the northcentral states came to 4.8 million, 14 percent above 2025 and 9 percent below the long run average.

“The total pond estimate (Prairie Canada and northcentral U.S. combined) was 4.8 ± 0.2 million, which was 14% above the 2025 estimate of 4.2 ± 0.1 million, and 9% below the long-term average (5.2 ± 0.03 million; Table 1, Figure 3).”
Waterfowl Population Status, 2026, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, read 2026-11-01

The mallard count is a quarter under average

Mallards were counted at 5.9 million, down 11 percent on 2025 and 26 percent on the long run average.

“Estimated total mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) abundance was 5.9 ± 0.2 million, which was 11% below the 2025 estimate and 26% below the long-term average of 7.9 ± 0.04 million.”
Waterfowl Population Status, 2026, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, read 2026-11-01

Pintails are the count to watch

Northern pintails held at 2.0 million, level with 2025 and 48 percent under the long run average.

“The northern pintail (Anas acuta) estimate was 2.0 ± 0.1 million, which was similar to the 2025 estimate of 2.2 ± 0.2 million and 48% below the long-term average of 3.8 ± 0.03 million.”
Waterfowl Population Status, 2026, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, read 2026-11-01

Nine goose and swan populations trending down

Of 26 goose and tundra swan populations, nine showed a significant downward trend over the most recent ten years.

“Of the 26 goose and tundra swan (Cygnus columbianus) populations, the primary monitoring indices for 9 of these populations had significant (P < 0.05) negative trends (% change per year) during the most recent 10-year period”
Waterfowl Population Status, 2026, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, read 2026-11-01

The survey has no crew area inside the flyway, so the continental figures stand.

Hundreds of mallards, snow geese and Canada geese rafted on open blue water in low sun, with a sheet of ice and a bare farm shoreline across the back of the lake — Mallards, snow geese and Canada geese packed onto what is left of the open water at Lake Andes in South Dakota, the ice already across the far end. Birds leave on cold and snow, not on the calendar, which is why the forecast carries a running weather severity score beside the week and says what it means for the birds on hand. “Waterfowl on Lake Andes; Lake Andes National Wildlife Refuge (52390894441)”, USFWS Mountain Prairie, Public domain

14 states

Every Mississippi Flyway state, rated

Each state page carries the week at its own reference points, the duck zones open across those days, its freeze normals and its agency’s source.

Alabama: 1 duck zone, open water through the season
Tennessee: 1 duck zone, freezing from about Dec 13
Kentucky: 1 duck zone, freezing from about Dec 25
Ohio: 3 duck zones, freezing from about Dec 16
Indiana: 3 duck zones, freezing from about Dec 7
Illinois: 3 duck zones, freezing from about Dec 3
Michigan: 3 duck zones, freezing from about Nov 22
Wisconsin: 3 duck zones, freezing from about Nov 17
Minnesota: 3 duck zones, freezing from about Nov 5
Mississippi: 1 duck zone, open water through the season
Louisiana: 2 duck zones, open water through the season
Arkansas: 1 duck zone, freezing from about Dec 9
Missouri: 3 duck zones, freezing from about Dec 12
Iowa: 3 duck zones, freezing from about Nov 23

Mississippi Flyway questions

What states are in the Mississippi Flyway?

When does duck season open in the Mississippi Flyway?

Where does the Mississippi Flyway freeze first?

How does the forecast rate a day?

Each day starts at the middle and moves on two groups of readings. Snow on the ground and the freeze, counted in consecutive days, are the two that make birds leave, and they carry up to 34 points between them. The front, the wind direction, the wind speed, the sky and the barometer decide whether birds already there fly and decoy, and they are held to 20 points together, because a clearing north wind behind a front is one event and not five. The total lands on Slow, Fair, Good, Great or Prime, and every day shows its own points.

How many ducks were counted for the Mississippi Flyway this year?

The other three flyways

Atlantic Flyway: The Atlantic Flyway runs the seaboard from Maine to Florida and reaches inland to West Virginia.
Central Flyway: The Central Flyway runs the plains from the Dakotas and Montana down through Texas.
Pacific Flyway: The Pacific Flyway runs from Alaska down the coast states and through the Great Basin.

More for the season

Duck season dates by stateEvery state’s 2026-27 duck and goose dates and zones, quoted from its agency.Duck migration trackerWhere the birds are being reported now, and how hard it has frozen to the north.Snow goose migrationThe spring push north and the conservation order seasons that follow it.Deer movement forecastThe same seven days rated for daylight deer movement.

Season dates and zones come from each state agency by way of the waterfowl season pages, the freeze dates from the NOAA 1991 to 2020 daily climate normals, read 2026-11-01, and the survey numbers from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service reports quoted above. The 2026-27 dates, zones, bag limits and shooting hours that govern are the ones on your own state agency’s page. A rating reads the weather, and food, habitat and hunting pressure move birds too. The forecast hub rates any ZIP code.