Hawaii Winter Forecast 2026–27: Snow, Cold & First Snow

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center outlook (issued August 20, 2026) puts Hawaii at equal chances (no lean) for temperature and equal chances (no lean) for precipitation over December–February, with El Niño driving the pattern, read off CPC's official map at the state's three reference cities. CPC draws its probability bands by region rather than issuing a call for each state, so where a state's cities straddle two bands we show equal chances — the official maps are at cpc.ncep.noaa.gov. This is a rain, not snow, outlook for your area — measurable snow is rare enough here that a seasonal tilt says little about it. Seasonal outlooks never forecast snowfall totals, and Honolulu's 1991–2020 normal of 0 in remains the best single planning number.

Honolulu does not have a meaningful first-snow date — measurable snow is rare enough that most winters record none. What snow Hawaii does get falls in Mauna Kea & Mauna Loa summits — 13,000+ ft, the only snow in the state.

February is the coldest month in Honolulu, with a normal January high of 80°F and low of 67°F. The all-time state record low is 12°F at Mauna Kea Observatory in 1979.

Honolulu averages 0 in of snow per season (NOAA 1991–2020 normals), with no month averaging measurable snow. Statewide totals vary enormously: Honolulu ~0 in, Hilo ~0 in, Waimea (Kamuela) ~0 in. The heaviest totals fall in Hawaii's snow belt (Mauna Kea & Mauna Loa summits): 13,000+ ft, the only snow in the state.

The Farmers' Almanac and Old Farmer's Almanac publish winter forecasts from undisclosed formulas and have never shown skill beyond chance in independent checks. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center publishes probabilities with stated skill and updates monthly. Even NOAA's outlook is only a tilt, so the ranking is: NOAA's tilt first, Hawaii's 30-year normals second, and the almanacs for entertainment.

El Niño conditions are present and strengthening. In its August 13, 2026 ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, CPC gave a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during fall and winter 2026–27, and a 69% chance that the October–December season sets a record (+2.5°C or more, 3-month RONI) for any El Niño since 1950. CPC is explicit that impacts consistent with El Niño become more likely with an event this large, but are not guaranteed. For Hawaii, CPC's map puts that at equal chances (no lean) for temperature and equal chances (no lean) for precipitation — taken from CPC's official Dec–Feb probability map at each state's three reference cities, since CPC publishes probabilities by region rather than a call per state. Coastal California is the headline — CPC raised above-normal precipitation odds above 50% for DJF through FMA, citing the wet Februaries of 1998 and 2024 in similar east-Pacific El Niños; California leans milder as well. Oregon and Washington are favored milder than normal with equal chances on precipitation (the usual El Niño dry tilt was deliberately left off the coast). Alaska leans milder, with the strongest warm confidence in the outlook over the southeast panhandle, and reads as equal chances on precipitation at our three reference cities even though the discussion describes a drier mainland pattern. Hawaii is equal chances on both.

Hawaii rates 1 of 5 (low) on our freezing-rain scale. Hawaii rarely sees damaging freezing rain. Where ice is a problem it is black ice on roads after a thaw-refreeze, not accumulation on lines and trees.

Hawaii rarely freezes at low elevation, so winterizing mostly means protecting tender plants and exposed pipes on the handful of nights a freeze is forecast — watch the 7-day low on this page rather than a calendar date.