Vermont Winter Forecast 2026–27: Snow, Cold & First Snow

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center outlook (issued August 20, 2026) puts Vermont at milder than normal for temperature and wetter than normal for precipitation over December–February, with El Niño driving the pattern, read off CPC's official map at the state's three reference cities. CPC draws its probability bands by region rather than issuing a call for each state, so where a state's cities straddle two bands we show equal chances — the official maps are at cpc.ncep.noaa.gov. More storms, marginal cold: expect an active winter where the rain/snow line decides everything. Elevation and the interior are the safer snow bets; valley and coastal totals often finish below normal in this combination. Seasonal outlooks never forecast snowfall totals, and Burlington's 1991–2020 normal of 81 in remains the best single planning number.

The median first measurable snow (0.1 in or more) in Burlington is November 18; about one year in ten it arrives by October 28, and one in ten waits until December 10 or later. Vermont's snow belt (Northern Green Mountains) usually records its first snow weeks earlier.

January is the coldest month in Burlington, with a normal January high of 28°F and low of 12°F. The all-time state record low is -50°F at Bloomfield in 1933.

Burlington averages 81 in of snow per season (NOAA 1991–2020 normals), with January the snowiest month. Statewide totals vary enormously: Burlington ~81 in, Montpelier ~85 in, Brattleboro ~60 in. The heaviest totals fall in Vermont's snow belt (Northern Green Mountains): Jay Peak averages ~350 in.

The Farmers' Almanac and Old Farmer's Almanac publish winter forecasts from undisclosed formulas and have never shown skill beyond chance in independent checks. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center publishes probabilities with stated skill and updates monthly. Even NOAA's outlook is only a tilt, so the ranking is: NOAA's tilt first, Vermont's 30-year normals second, and the almanacs for entertainment.

El Niño conditions are present and strengthening. In its August 13, 2026 ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, CPC gave a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during fall and winter 2026–27, and a 69% chance that the October–December season sets a record (+2.5°C or more, 3-month RONI) for any El Niño since 1950. CPC is explicit that impacts consistent with El Niño become more likely with an event this large, but are not guaranteed. For Vermont, CPC's map puts that at milder than normal for temperature and wetter than normal for precipitation — taken from CPC's official Dec–Feb probability map at each state's three reference cities, since CPC publishes probabilities by region rather than a call per state. CPC's Dec–Feb map favors a milder-than-normal winter across the whole Northeast, and tilts everything from New Jersey and New York through southern New England and the Green and White Mountains wetter as well. That is the classic strong-El Niño combination: an active storm track up the coast, but marginal cold. Maine and Pennsylvania read as equal chances on precipitation. Translation for snow lovers: storms are likely, the rain/snow line is the whole game, and the interior highlands are the safer snow bet than I-95.

Vermont rates 3 of 5 (moderate) on our freezing-rain scale. Vermont sees freezing rain a few times each winter, usually as a brief glaze at the start or end of a storm rather than a multi-day event — though the interior and valleys can trap cold air and get a real ice storm once a decade.

Anchor it to the first frost: Vermont's typical first frost is September 24, and a hard freeze (28°F) usually follows within about two weeks — around October 8. Blow out sprinklers and disconnect hoses before the hard freeze, service the furnace by then, and have winter tires on before November 18.