Michigan Lake Ice In Dates and Freeze Over Records

Q: How do I know whether the ice is safe?

Contact your state agency and look at the water yourself. Every figure here is the day a lake closed over in a past winter. Ice strength varies across a single lake on a single day with depth, current, springs and snow cover, and a lake that has just closed over is at its most deceptive: it looks like a solid surface and it is a few days of new ice.

Q: Is ice in getting later in Michigan?

In this data, yes on 2 of the 2 Michigan records long enough to state a century trend. The largest is Gull Lake. Those figures are least squares lines fitted to the observations, the same simple description the ice phenology literature uses. They describe what the record did. They are not projections, and any single lake can swing three or four weeks between consecutive winters.

Q: Do Michigan lakes ever fail to freeze?

Yes. 3 of the 4 Michigan water bodies here have winters on record in which they never closed over, 48 winters in total. Those winters are kept in the data rather than dropped, because a winter with no ice is an observation, and treating it as missing would bias every average on this page toward an earlier freeze.

Q: How does ice in compare with ice out on the same Michigan lakes?

They are the two ends of one season and they have moved in opposite directions. Michigan lakes appear in both halves of this dataset, and where a lake carries a long enough record on both, the freeze has been arriving later while the thaw has been arriving earlier. The ice-out page for Michigan carries the thaw half of the same records, lake by lake, from the same source.

Typical ice in on Grand Traverse Bay

February 10

That is the median across 122 recorded winters from 1852 to 2015, the deepest freeze record in Michigan. Across the 4 Michigan water bodies on this page the typical closing runs from December 6 on Fair Lake to February 10 on Grand Traverse Bay. Each of those is a median from a record of past winters, not a forecast or an observation of any lake now.

February 11

Grand Traverse Bay across its last 30 recorded winters

66 days

Between the earliest and latest typical freeze in the state

2 of 2

Records long enough to state a century trend that show a later freeze

48

Winters with no freeze at all, on 3 of these water bodies

Every Michigan water body, in the order they close

Each bar runs from that water body's earliest recorded closing to its latest, across the whole Michigan record. The solid dot is the median over every recorded winter and the ring is the median over the most recent 30. The scale starts near the earliest date in the set rather than at January 1, because these are dates a few weeks apart.

Where this winter’s dates come from

Michigan publishes no statewide freeze list. For the Great Lakes themselves the current picture comes from the federal ice analysis at NOAA GLERL, which maps ice cover extent through the winter. That is a satellite and chart product about where ice is, published by the laboratory that produces it.

NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory ice cover

Today against the record

How this point in the season has usually played out

Where today sits in the Grand Traverse Bay record

Today is earlier in the ice season than any closing in this record. The earliest Grand Traverse Bay ever closed over in 122 recorded winters was January 10, in 1856, which is 83 days from now on this year’s calendar.

The median across the whole record is February 10, which is 114 days from now on this year’s calendar. The record itself ends in 2015, so this is a comparison against past winters and not a statement about the current one.

This counts recorded winters, not this one; the current winter comes from the agency linked above.

Grand Traverse Bay, recorded closings by winter

1946 to 2015, 40 winters, median Feb 10

Taller means later in the season. The darker columns are the more recent half of the window. The dashed line is the median across the whole record, not just this window, and the vertical scale starts near the earliest date on the chart rather than at January 1 so that a three week shift stays visible. The source ships the most recent 40 observations here, so this window is the tail of a record that begins in 1852.

Water body by water body

The deepest Michigan freeze records

Ordered by how much record is behind them. The median is across every recorded winter; the second figure is across the most recent 30, which is the fairer thing to compare against a lake you know today.

Names are reproduced exactly as the source database records them, which is often a shortened form: a lake filed as “Detroit” or “Otsego” is Detroit Lake or Otsego Lake to everyone who lives on it. The names stay as recorded, because United States lakes split unpredictably between “Lake X” and “X Lake”; the subtitle on each card carries the water body type and the state.

Grand Traverse Bay

Lake in Michigan · 122 recorded winters, 1852 to 201544 winters open

Feb 10

typical ice in

Feb 11

last 30 recorded winters

Jan 10

earliest, 1856

Mar 23

latest, 1933

Across the whole record the closing date has moved 6 days later per century across the record.

Its ice out has moved 6 days earlier per century across the record, so adding the two lines together this lake’s ice season is about 12 days shorter per century.

44 winters on record it never closed over at all, most recently the one ending in 2017. Those winters are counted separately from the 122 dates above.

Mean closing date per decade. Only decades with four or more observations appear, and the scale starts near the shortest bar rather than at January 1 so that small differences stay visible rather than collapsing into one length.

Gull Lake

Lake in Michigan · 91 recorded winters, 1924 to 20193 winters open

Jan 6

typical ice in

Jan 14

last 30 recorded winters

Dec 12

earliest, 1958

Feb 12

latest, 1960

Across the whole record the closing date has moved 15 days later per century across the record.

Its ice out has moved 9 days earlier per century across the record, so adding the two lines together this lake’s ice season is about 24 days shorter per century.

3 winters on record it never closed over at all, most recently the one ending in 2002. Those winters are counted separately from the 91 dates above.

Mean closing date per decade. Only decades with four or more observations appear, and the scale starts near the shortest bar rather than at January 1 so that small differences stay visible rather than collapsing into one length.

Fair Lake

Lake in Michigan · 64 recorded winters, 1955 to 2018

Dec 6

typical ice in

Dec 12

last 30 recorded winters

Nov 8

earliest, 1968

Jan 18

latest, 2007

The record spans 63 years, under the 80 year span needed to state a century trend. The median and the extremes above are unaffected.

Mean closing date per decade. Only decades with four or more observations appear, and the scale starts near the shortest bar rather than at January 1 so that small differences stay visible rather than collapsing into one length.

Green Bay at Menominee

Lake in Michigan · 64 recorded winters, 1900 to 1962record ends 19621 winter open

Dec 31

typical ice in

Dec 27

last 30 recorded winters

Nov 29

earliest, 1925

Feb 1

latest, 1925

The record spans 62 years, under the 80 year span needed to state a century trend. The median and the extremes above are unaffected.

One winter on record, ending in 1964, it never closed over at all.

Mean closing date per decade. Only decades with four or more observations appear, and the scale starts near the shortest bar rather than at January 1 so that small differences stay visible rather than collapsing into one length.

A wall of shelf ice rising above a lake surface strewn with broken plates of new ice and patches of dark open water, under a blue sky with high cloud — Shelf ice standing above a field of broken new plates, with open water still showing between them. This is the state a lake is in for days or weeks before anybody writes a closing date against it, and it is why two observers standing on the same shore can pick two different days. “Ice along Lake Superior” — National Park Service, Pictured Rocks National Lakeshore — Public domain

Every record

All 4 Michigan water bodies with a freeze record

Water body	Record	Typical ice in	Last 30 winters	Earliest	Latest	Change per century	Winters open
Fair Lake	1955 to 2018 (64)	Dec 6	Dec 12	Nov 8 1968	Jan 18 2007	record too short	0
Green Bay at Menominee	1900 to 1962 (64)	Dec 31	Dec 27	Nov 29 1925	Feb 1 1925	record too short	1
Gull Lake	1924 to 2019 (91)	Jan 6	Jan 14	Dec 12 1958	Feb 12 1960	+15 days	3
Grand Traverse Bay	1852 to 2015 (122)	Feb 10	Feb 11	Jan 10 1856	Mar 23 1933	+6.2 days	44

Dates are day of year, rendered on a common non leap calendar so the same stored value always reads the same way. Freeze dates are stored on a winter axis, where a January closing sorts after a December one instead of jumping back to the start of the year; the labels above are ordinary calendar dates. “Change per century” is a least squares line through the observations, shown only where a record spans 80 years or more, because a century figure extrapolated from a 40 year window describes the decades that happened to be sampled rather than the lake. “Winters open” counts the winters the source marks as never closing over, which are observations rather than gaps and are not included in the record counts.

Both ends of the season

How much shorter the Michigan ice season has got

2 Michigan water bodies carry a least squares slope on both the freeze and the thaw, which is the only way to see the season from both ends at once. Adding one lake’s own freeze line to its own thaw line, the widest here is Gull Lake at 24.4 days shorter per century.

That is addition on two numbers the source data already publishes for that lake: a description of what one lake’s own record did across the years somebody was watching it, not a model and not a projection of what the next decade will do.

Freeze arriving later
Thaw arriving earlier

Each bar is one Michigan lake's own freeze line added to its own thaw line, both fitted by least squares to that lake's observations and both already published in the source data. Only records spanning 80 years or more on both variables appear, which is why not every water body in the table above is here.

Reading the record

What the Michigan freeze record shows

Of the 2 Michigan freeze records long enough to state a century trend, 2 show the closing date arriving later. Those are least squares lines fitted to observations, the same simple description the ice phenology literature uses. They describe what each record did. Any single lake can swing three or four weeks between consecutive winters, and several here have.

A typical ice in date is a median drawn from a record: the middle of a distribution whose ends, on these Michigan records, sit 72 days apart on Grand Traverse Bay alone. It describes past winters, not the current one.

Grand Traverse Bay did not close over at all in 44 winters on record, which is 27 percent of the winters in its span, and the eight most recent of those ended in 2006, 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2016, 2017. The source records those winters rather than leaving them blank, and this page keeps them, because dropping them and averaging only the winters the water did close would bias the record toward an earlier freeze. In Michigan that is the single most important thing the freeze record has to say.

For an arm of one of the Great Lakes, closing over is a messier idea than it is on a small inland lake, and the Michigan series show it. Grand Traverse Bay records both the winters it closed and the winters it did not, and the two inland Michigan lakes here were kept by a university biological station using its own consistent test rather than a state definition.

Two lakes, one biological station. Gull Lake and Fair Lake are both watched from the Kellogg Biological Station, which is why their records run in step and why they are usable against each other. Fair Lake is small and typically closes a month before Gull Lake does, on the same winters, from the same observers.

The record that stopped in 1962. Green Bay at Menominee was watched from 1900 to 1962 and then nobody continued it. It is published here because 64 winters of anything is worth having, but it describes the first half of the twentieth century and nothing since, and no figure drawn from it should be read as a current normal.

Satellite view of Lake Superior in mid December with the surrounding land under snow, the open lake dark, and pale new ice showing in the shallow western bays — Lake Superior on December 15, with the first ice of that winter forming in the shallow western bays while the deep middle stays open. Depth is what sets a freeze date: a shallow bay gives up its summer heat in weeks and the deep middle can take all winter or never manage it. “Lake Superior (MODIS 2018-12-20)” — MODIS Land Rapid Response Team, NASA GSFC — Public domain

Provenance

Where these Michigan numbers came from

The observations

341 recorded closings across 4 Michigan water bodies, from 1852 to 2019. Only records with 40 or more usable observations are included, and every derived figure is computed from them.

Benson, B., Magnuson, J. and Sharma, S. (2000). Global Lake and River Ice Phenology Database. (G01377, Version 1). Boulder, Colorado USA. National Snow and Ice Data Center. https://doi.org/10.7265/N5W66HP8 Accessed 2026-08-24.

Grand Traverse Bay carries more winters without a complete freeze than any other water body in this data, and its last recorded closing in the shipped record is 2015.

Common questions

Michigan lake ice in FAQ

When do lakes usually freeze over in Michigan?

It depends on the lake, so this page gives a figure for each one instead of a single state number. Grand Traverse Bay has the deepest record in Michigan at 122 recorded winters and typically closed over around February 10, or February 11 across its most recent 30 recorded winters. Across the 4 Michigan water bodies here the typical date runs from December 6 on Fair Lake to February 10 on Grand Traverse Bay. Every one of those is a median drawn from past winters and none of them describes this one.

How do I know whether the ice is safe?

Who publishes this winter's Michigan ice in dates?

What exactly counts as ice in on a Michigan lake?

For an arm of one of the Great Lakes, closing over is a messier idea than it is on a small inland lake, and the Michigan series show it. Grand Traverse Bay records both the winters it closed and the winters it did not, and the two inland Michigan lakes here were kept by a university biological station using its own consistent test rather than a state definition. That matters most when you compare two lakes against each other and least when you compare one lake against its own past, which is what every figure on this page is built for.

How far back do Michigan freeze records go?

The oldest freeze observation in Michigan in this dataset is from 1852 and the most recent is from 2019. Across the state this page covers 4 water bodies with at least 40 recorded winters each, 1 of which span a century or more, and 341 individual freeze dates in total. Almost none of it was collected for science. It was kept by field stations, fisheries staff, harbour masters, newspapers and individuals for practical reasons, and became a climate record afterwards.

Is ice in getting later in Michigan?

Do Michigan lakes ever fail to freeze?

How does ice in compare with ice out on the same Michigan lakes?

Overhead view of pancake ice on Lake Superior, rounded plates of new ice with raised white rims and pale turquoise centres packed edge to edge across the water — Pancake ice on Lake Superior at Pictured Rocks in Michigan. Each plate froze separately, then collided with its neighbours until the collisions rounded and rimmed it. On water this size a closing date is the day all of this finally welded together, and in many winters it does not. “Pancake Ice on Lake Superior” — National Park Service, Pictured Rocks National Lakeshore — Public domain

The other end of the season

Ice in, ice out, and the rest of the Michigan winter

Michigan ice inWhen 4 Michigan water bodies have typically closed over, from 341 recorded winters. You are on it.

Michigan ice outThe spring half of the same records, lake by lake, from the same source. Together they are the length of the Michigan ice season.

Every state with a freeze recordThe national picture, the ice season closing from both ends, and every state with a freeze record.Michigan winter outlookWhat NOAA expects from the season that puts the ice on in the first place.Michigan first snowThe other autumn threshold, on the same calendar and from a different federal record.

More Midwest states with a lake freeze record

Ice in dates are historical observations compiled by the National Snow and Ice Data Center. They describe past winters only: a median freeze date is a record of winters that have already happened, and says nothing about the ice on any lake today. For current ice and for anything involving going out on it, contact Michigan Department of Natural Resources. National picture: every state with a lake freeze record → The thaw half: Michigan lake ice out dates.
Hero image: “Pancake Ice on Lake Superior” — National Park Service, Pictured Rocks National Lakeshore — Public domain