Cold Snap Forecast for New York: The Next Arctic Blast
In New York City the coldest week is usually Jan 20 to 26, with a normal low of 27°F, and the coldest night of the last 10 winters was 2°F on Jan 31, 2019.
Reading the National Weather Service forecast for New York City.
Normals and records at New York Central Park Tower
The week with the lowest normal low at each reference station, from NOAA’s 1991 to 2020 normals, beside the coldest night of the last 10 winters, the median first freeze and the record low.
The coldest week and the coldest nights at New York reference stations
Station
Coldest week
Normal low
Coldest night, last 10 winters
First freeze
Record low
New York CityNew York Central Park Tower, USW00094728
Jan 20 to 26
27°F
2°FJan 31, 2019
Nov 21
−15°FFeb 9, 1934records since 1869
BuffaloBuffalo, USW00014733
Jan 25 to 31
18°F
−9°FFeb 9, 2026
Oct 31
−20°FFeb 2, 1961records since 1938
AlbanyAlbany Airport, USW00014735
Jan 23 to 29
15°F
−13°FFeb 4, 2023
Oct 18
−28°FJan 19, 1971records since 1938
SyracuseSyracuse Hancock International Airport, USW00014771
Jan 23 to 29
15°F
−15°FJan 1, 2018
Oct 27
−26°F3 times, last on Feb 18, 1979records since 1938
MassenaMassena International Airport, USW00094725
Jan 24 to 30
4°F
−30°FJan 22, 2022
Oct 10
−44°FJan 15, 1957records since 1948
Normals from NOAA NCEI; nightly lows from GHCN-Daily, the winters of 2016 to 2017 through 2025 to 2026.
The panel at the top of this page sets the next 7 nights at New York City against the normal low for each date and adds the Climate Prediction Center outlook for the two weeks after. Enter a ZIP for your own town; it uses the nearest of the 5 New York reference stations.
At New York City it is usually Jan 20 to 26, with a normal low of 27°F. At the other reference stations: Buffalo Jan 25 to 31 (18°F), Albany Jan 23 to 29 (15°F), Syracuse Jan 23 to 29 (15°F) and Massena Jan 24 to 30 (4°F). These are NOAA's 1991 to 2020 daily normals.
The normal low at New York City reaches 32°F around Dec 24. The first actual freeze came around Nov 21 in the median of the last 10 winters, weeks ahead of the normal, because one clear calm night can run far below the average.
The coldest night of the last 10 winters at New York City was 2°F on Jan 31, 2019, and the coldest night of a typical winter there was 10°F. Elsewhere: Buffalo −9°F on Feb 9, 2026, Albany −13°F on Feb 4, 2023 and Syracuse −15°F on Jan 1, 2018. The record at the New York City station is −15°F, on Feb 9, 1934, in daily records since 1869.
At New York City a typical recent winter brings 66 nights at 32°F or colder and 14 at 20°F or colder, the median of the last 10 seasons.
Each night's forecast low is compared with the NOAA normal low for that date at the nearest reference station. A night 20 or more degrees below normal is an arctic blast, and so is a night below zero where the normal low is 10°F or warmer. A night 10 to 19 below is a cold snap. A night 5 or more below, or a week that runs 3 or more below on average, is colder than normal, and a week 5 or more above is mild.
The normal lows and coldest weeks are NOAA's 1991 to 2020 daily climate normals for New York Central Park Tower (USW00094728), Buffalo (USW00014733), Albany Airport (USW00014735), Syracuse Hancock International Airport (USW00014771) and Massena International Airport (USW00094725). The recent winters, first dates and records come from the same stations' daily lows in NOAA's GHCN-Daily archive, the winters of 2016 to 2017 through 2025 to 2026. The 7 night forecast is the National Weather Service's and the outlook is the Climate Prediction Center's.
