Cold Snap Forecast for Minnesota: The Next Arctic Blast
In Minneapolis the coldest week is usually Jan 19 to 25, with a normal low of 8°F, and the coldest night of the last 10 winters was −28°F on Jan 30, 2019.
Reading the National Weather Service forecast for Minneapolis.
Normals and records at Minneapolis St. Paul Airport
The week with the lowest normal low at each reference station, from NOAA’s 1991 to 2020 normals, beside the coldest night of the last 10 winters, the median first freeze and the record low.
The coldest week and the coldest nights at Minnesota reference stations
Station
Coldest week
Normal low
Coldest night, last 10 winters
First freeze
Record low
MinneapolisMinneapolis St. Paul Airport, USW00014922
Jan 19 to 25
8°F
−28°FJan 30, 2019
Oct 24
−34°FJan 19, 1970records since 1938
RochesterRochester International Airport, USW00014925
Jan 20 to 26
6°F
−30°FJan 31, 2019
Oct 11
−40°FJan 30, 1951records since 1893
DuluthDuluth, USW00014913
Jan 19 to 25
2°F
−35°FFeb 13, 2021
Oct 9
−39°FTwice, last on Feb 2, 1996records since 1948
International FallsFalls International Airport, USW00014918
Jan 21 to 27
−7°F
−46°FJan 27, 2019, 9 winters on record
Sep 13
−55°FJan 6, 1909records since 1906
Normals from NOAA NCEI; nightly lows from GHCN-Daily, the winters of 2016 to 2017 through 2025 to 2026.
The panel at the top of this page sets the next 7 nights at Minneapolis against the normal low for each date and adds the Climate Prediction Center outlook for the two weeks after. Enter a ZIP for your own town; it uses the nearest of the 4 Minnesota reference stations.
At Minneapolis it is usually Jan 19 to 25, with a normal low of 8°F. At the other reference stations: Rochester Jan 20 to 26 (6°F), Duluth Jan 19 to 25 (2°F) and International Falls Jan 21 to 27 (−7°F). These are NOAA's 1991 to 2020 daily normals.
The normal low at Minneapolis reaches 32°F around Nov 7 and 20°F around Dec 3. The first actual freeze came around Oct 24 in the median of the last 10 winters, weeks ahead of the normal, because one clear calm night can run far below the average.
The coldest night of the last 10 winters at Minneapolis was −28°F on Jan 30, 2019, and the coldest night of a typical winter there was −18°F. Elsewhere: Rochester −30°F on Jan 31, 2019, Duluth −35°F on Feb 13, 2021 and International Falls −46°F on Jan 27, 2019 (9 winters on record). The record at the Minneapolis station is −34°F, on Jan 19, 1970, in daily records since 1938.
At Minneapolis a typical recent winter brings 152 nights at 32°F or colder, 72 at 20°F or colder and 19 at zero or colder, the median of the last 10 seasons.
Each night's forecast low is compared with the NOAA normal low for that date at the nearest reference station. A night 20 or more degrees below normal is an arctic blast, and so is a night below zero where the normal low is 10°F or warmer. A night 10 to 19 below is a cold snap. A night 5 or more below, or a week that runs 3 or more below on average, is colder than normal, and a week 5 or more above is mild.
The normal lows and coldest weeks are NOAA's 1991 to 2020 daily climate normals for Minneapolis St. Paul Airport (USW00014922), Rochester International Airport (USW00014925), Duluth (USW00014913) and Falls International Airport (USW00014918). The recent winters, first dates and records come from the same stations' daily lows in NOAA's GHCN-Daily archive, the winters of 2016 to 2017 through 2025 to 2026. The 7 night forecast is the National Weather Service's and the outlook is the Climate Prediction Center's.
