Cold Snap Forecast for Kansas: The Next Arctic Blast
In Wichita the coldest week is usually Jan 11 to 17, with a normal low of 22°F, and the coldest night of the last 10 winters was −17°F on Feb 16, 2021.
Reading the National Weather Service forecast for Wichita.
The week with the lowest normal low at each reference station, from NOAA’s 1991 to 2020 normals, beside the coldest night of the last 10 winters, the median first freeze and the record low.
The coldest week and the coldest nights at Kansas reference stations
Station
Coldest week
Normal low
Coldest night, last 10 winters
First freeze
Record low
WichitaWichita, USW00003928
Jan 11 to 17
22°F
−17°FFeb 16, 2021
Oct 26
−21°FFeb 6, 1982records since 1953
TopekaTopeka Municipal Airport, USW00013996
Jan 15 to 21
20°F
−21°FFeb 16, 2021
Oct 23
−26°FDec 23, 1989records since 1946
Dodge CityDodge City, USW00013985
Jan 6 to 12
20°F
−16°FDec 18, 2016
Oct 17
−21°FDec 22, 1989records since 1948
GoodlandGoodland, USW00023065
Dec 27 to Jan 2
17°F
−24°FFeb 15, 2021
Oct 10
−27°FDec 22, 1989records since 1895
Normals from NOAA NCEI; nightly lows from GHCN-Daily, the winters of 2016 to 2017 through 2025 to 2026.
The panel at the top of this page sets the next 7 nights at Wichita against the normal low for each date and adds the Climate Prediction Center outlook for the two weeks after. Enter a ZIP for your own town; it uses the nearest of the 4 Kansas reference stations.
At Wichita it is usually Jan 11 to 17, with a normal low of 22°F. At the other reference stations: Topeka Jan 15 to 21 (20°F), Dodge City Jan 6 to 12 (20°F) and Goodland Dec 27 to Jan 2 (17°F). These are NOAA's 1991 to 2020 daily normals.
The normal low at Wichita reaches 32°F around Nov 23. The first actual freeze came around Oct 26 in the median of the last 10 winters, weeks ahead of the normal, because one clear calm night can run far below the average.
The coldest night of the last 10 winters at Wichita was −17°F on Feb 16, 2021, and the coldest night of a typical winter there was −4°F. Elsewhere: Topeka −21°F on Feb 16, 2021, Dodge City −16°F on Dec 18, 2016 and Goodland −24°F on Feb 15, 2021. The record at the Wichita station is −21°F, on Feb 6, 1982, in daily records since 1953.
At Wichita a typical recent winter brings 104 nights at 32°F or colder, 30 at 20°F or colder and 2 at zero or colder, the median of the last 10 seasons.
Each night's forecast low is compared with the NOAA normal low for that date at the nearest reference station. A night 20 or more degrees below normal is an arctic blast, and so is a night below zero where the normal low is 10°F or warmer. A night 10 to 19 below is a cold snap. A night 5 or more below, or a week that runs 3 or more below on average, is colder than normal, and a week 5 or more above is mild.
The normal lows and coldest weeks are NOAA's 1991 to 2020 daily climate normals for Wichita (USW00003928), Topeka Municipal Airport (USW00013996), Dodge City (USW00013985) and Goodland (USW00023065). The recent winters, first dates and records come from the same stations' daily lows in NOAA's GHCN-Daily archive, the winters of 2016 to 2017 through 2025 to 2026. The 7 night forecast is the National Weather Service's and the outlook is the Climate Prediction Center's.
