Cold Snap Forecast for Tennessee: The Next Arctic Blast
In Nashville the coldest week is usually Jan 17 to 23, with a normal low of 30°F, and the coldest night of the last 10 winters was −1°F on Jan 17, 2024.
Reading the National Weather Service forecast for Nashville.
Normals and records at Nashville International Airport
The week with the lowest normal low at each reference station, from NOAA’s 1991 to 2020 normals, beside the coldest night of the last 10 winters, the median first freeze and the record low.
The coldest week and the coldest nights at Tennessee reference stations
Station
Coldest week
Normal low
Coldest night, last 10 winters
First freeze
Record low
NashvilleNashville International Airport, USW00013897
The panel at the top of this page sets the next 7 nights at Nashville against the normal low for each date and adds the Climate Prediction Center outlook for the two weeks after. Enter a ZIP for your own town; it uses the nearest of the 4 Tennessee reference stations.
At Nashville it is usually Jan 17 to 23, with a normal low of 30°F. At the other reference stations: Memphis Jan 13 to 19 (33°F), Knoxville Jan 14 to 20 (30°F) and Chattanooga Jan 16 to 22 (32°F). These are NOAA's 1991 to 2020 daily normals.
The normal low at Nashville reaches 32°F around Dec 27. The first actual freeze came around Nov 10 in the median of the last 10 winters, weeks ahead of the normal, because one clear calm night can run far below the average.
The coldest night of the last 10 winters at Nashville was −1°F on Jan 17, 2024, and the coldest night of a typical winter there was 8°F. Elsewhere: Memphis 1°F on Dec 23, 2022, Knoxville 0°F on Jan 17, 2024 and Chattanooga 7°F on Dec 23, 2022. The record at the Nashville station is −17°F, on Jan 21, 1985, in daily records since 1948.
At Nashville a typical recent winter brings 53 nights at 32°F or colder and 9 at 20°F or colder, the median of the last 10 seasons.
Each night's forecast low is compared with the NOAA normal low for that date at the nearest reference station. A night 20 or more degrees below normal is an arctic blast, and so is a night below zero where the normal low is 10°F or warmer. A night 10 to 19 below is a cold snap. A night 5 or more below, or a week that runs 3 or more below on average, is colder than normal, and a week 5 or more above is mild.
The normal lows and coldest weeks are NOAA's 1991 to 2020 daily climate normals for Nashville International Airport (USW00013897), Memphis International Airport (USW00013893), Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport (USW00013891) and Chattanooga Lovell Airport (USW00013882). The recent winters, first dates and records come from the same stations' daily lows in NOAA's GHCN-Daily archive, the winters of 2016 to 2017 through 2025 to 2026. The 7 night forecast is the National Weather Service's and the outlook is the Climate Prediction Center's.
