Cold Snap Forecast for Kentucky: The Next Arctic Blast
In Louisville the coldest week is usually Jan 17 to 23, with a normal low of 27°F, and the coldest night of the last 10 winters was −5°F on Dec 23, 2022.
Reading the National Weather Service forecast for Louisville.
Normals and records at Louisville International Airport
The week with the lowest normal low at each reference station, from NOAA’s 1991 to 2020 normals, beside the coldest night of the last 10 winters, the median first freeze and the record low.
The coldest week and the coldest nights at Kentucky reference stations
Station
Coldest week
Normal low
Coldest night, last 10 winters
First freeze
Record low
LouisvilleLouisville International Airport, USW00093821
Jan 17 to 23
27°F
−5°FDec 23, 2022
Nov 3
−22°FJan 19, 1994records since 1948
LexingtonLexington Bluegrass Airport, USW00093820
Jan 19 to 25
25°F
−7°FJan 21, 2024
Oct 28
−21°FJan 24, 1963records since 1872
PaducahPaducah, USW00003816
Jan 17 to 23
27°F
−4°FDec 23, 2022
Nov 1
−15°FJan 20, 1985records since 1949
JacksonJackson, USW00003889
Jan 16 to 22
27°F
−3°FDec 23, 2022
Nov 6
−18°F3 times, last on Jan 19, 1994records since 1981
Normals from NOAA NCEI; nightly lows from GHCN-Daily, the winters of 2016 to 2017 through 2025 to 2026.
The panel at the top of this page sets the next 7 nights at Louisville against the normal low for each date and adds the Climate Prediction Center outlook for the two weeks after. Enter a ZIP for your own town; it uses the nearest of the 4 Kentucky reference stations.
At Louisville it is usually Jan 17 to 23, with a normal low of 27°F. At the other reference stations: Lexington Jan 19 to 25 (25°F), Paducah Jan 17 to 23 (27°F) and Jackson Jan 16 to 22 (27°F). These are NOAA's 1991 to 2020 daily normals.
The normal low at Louisville reaches 32°F around Dec 17. The first actual freeze came around Nov 3 in the median of the last 10 winters, weeks ahead of the normal, because one clear calm night can run far below the average.
The coldest night of the last 10 winters at Louisville was −5°F on Dec 23, 2022, and the coldest night of a typical winter there was 5°F. Elsewhere: Lexington −7°F on Jan 21, 2024, Paducah −4°F on Dec 23, 2022 and Jackson −3°F on Dec 23, 2022. The record at the Louisville station is −22°F, on Jan 19, 1994, in daily records since 1948.
At Louisville a typical recent winter brings 62 nights at 32°F or colder and 12 at 20°F or colder, the median of the last 10 seasons.
Each night's forecast low is compared with the NOAA normal low for that date at the nearest reference station. A night 20 or more degrees below normal is an arctic blast, and so is a night below zero where the normal low is 10°F or warmer. A night 10 to 19 below is a cold snap. A night 5 or more below, or a week that runs 3 or more below on average, is colder than normal, and a week 5 or more above is mild.
The normal lows and coldest weeks are NOAA's 1991 to 2020 daily climate normals for Louisville International Airport (USW00093821), Lexington Bluegrass Airport (USW00093820), Paducah (USW00003816) and Jackson (USW00003889). The recent winters, first dates and records come from the same stations' daily lows in NOAA's GHCN-Daily archive, the winters of 2016 to 2017 through 2025 to 2026. The 7 night forecast is the National Weather Service's and the outlook is the Climate Prediction Center's.
