Cold Snap Forecast for South Dakota: The Next Arctic Blast
In Sioux Falls the coldest week is usually Jan 15 to 21, with a normal low of 8°F, and the coldest night of the last 10 winters was −27°F on Dec 18, 2016.
Reading the National Weather Service forecast for Sioux Falls.
The coldest week in South Dakota, station by station
The week with the lowest normal low at each reference station, from NOAA’s 1991 to 2020 normals, beside the coldest night of the last 10 winters, the median first freeze and the record low.
The coldest week and the coldest nights at South Dakota reference stations
Station
Coldest week
Normal low
Coldest night, last 10 winters
First freeze
Record low
Sioux FallsSioux Falls, USW00014944
Jan 15 to 21
8°F
−27°FDec 18, 2016
Oct 11
−36°FJan 19, 1970records since 1932
Rapid CityRapid City Regional Airport, USW00024090
Dec 28 to Jan 3
13°F
−26°FFeb 19, 2025
Oct 6
−31°FFeb 2, 1996records since 1948
PierrePierre Regional Airport, USW00024025
Jan 15 to 21
9°F
−25°FDec 31, 2017
Oct 7
−35°FFeb 9, 1994records since 1933
AberdeenAberdeen, USW00014929
Jan 18 to 24
1°F
−37°FJan 30, 2019
Oct 4
−46°FTwice, last on Jan 12, 1912records since 1893
Normals from NOAA NCEI; nightly lows from GHCN-Daily, the winters of 2016 to 2017 through 2025 to 2026.
The panel at the top of this page sets the next 7 nights at Sioux Falls against the normal low for each date and adds the Climate Prediction Center outlook for the two weeks after. Enter a ZIP for your own town; it uses the nearest of the 4 South Dakota reference stations.
At Sioux Falls it is usually Jan 15 to 21, with a normal low of 8°F. At the other reference stations: Rapid City Dec 28 to Jan 3 (13°F), Pierre Jan 15 to 21 (9°F) and Aberdeen Jan 18 to 24 (1°F). These are NOAA's 1991 to 2020 daily normals.
The normal low at Sioux Falls reaches 32°F around Oct 30 and 20°F around Nov 27. The first actual freeze came around Oct 11 in the median of the last 10 winters, weeks ahead of the normal, because one clear calm night can run far below the average.
The coldest night of the last 10 winters at Sioux Falls was −27°F on Dec 18, 2016, and the coldest night of a typical winter there was −21°F. Elsewhere: Rapid City −26°F on Feb 19, 2025, Pierre −25°F on Dec 31, 2017 and Aberdeen −37°F on Jan 30, 2019. The record at the Sioux Falls station is −36°F, on Jan 19, 1970, in daily records since 1932.
At Sioux Falls a typical recent winter brings 158 nights at 32°F or colder, 83 at 20°F or colder and 20 at zero or colder, the median of the last 10 seasons.
Each night's forecast low is compared with the NOAA normal low for that date at the nearest reference station. A night 20 or more degrees below normal is an arctic blast, and so is a night below zero where the normal low is 10°F or warmer. A night 10 to 19 below is a cold snap. A night 5 or more below, or a week that runs 3 or more below on average, is colder than normal, and a week 5 or more above is mild.
The normal lows and coldest weeks are NOAA's 1991 to 2020 daily climate normals for Sioux Falls (USW00014944), Rapid City Regional Airport (USW00024090), Pierre Regional Airport (USW00024025) and Aberdeen (USW00014929). The recent winters, first dates and records come from the same stations' daily lows in NOAA's GHCN-Daily archive, the winters of 2016 to 2017 through 2025 to 2026. The 7 night forecast is the National Weather Service's and the outlook is the Climate Prediction Center's.
