Cold Snap Forecast for Arkansas: The Next Arctic Blast
In Little Rock the coldest week is usually Jan 11 to 17, with a normal low of 31°F, and the coldest night of the last 10 winters was −1°F on Feb 16, 2021.
Reading the National Weather Service forecast for Little Rock.
Normals and records at Little Rock Airport Adams Field
The week with the lowest normal low at each reference station, from NOAA’s 1991 to 2020 normals, beside the coldest night of the last 10 winters, the median first freeze and the record low.
The coldest week and the coldest nights at Arkansas reference stations
Station
Coldest week
Normal low
Coldest night, last 10 winters
First freeze
Record low
Little RockLittle Rock Airport Adams Field, USW00013963
Jan 11 to 17
31°F
−1°FFeb 16, 2021
Nov 10
−5°FFeb 2, 1951records since 1938
FayettevilleFayetteville Drake Field, USW00093993
Jan 13 to 19
25°F
−20°FFeb 16, 2021
Oct 23
−20°FFeb 16, 2021records since 1949
Fort SmithFort Smith Regional Airport, USW00013964
Jan 12 to 18
29°F
−8°FFeb 16, 2021
Nov 10
−10°FJan 11, 1977records since 1945
JonesboroJonesboro Municipal Airport, USW00003953
Jan 15 to 21
30°F
−2°FFeb 16, 2021
Nov 10
−2°FFeb 16, 2021records since 1998
Normals from NOAA NCEI; nightly lows from GHCN-Daily, the winters of 2016 to 2017 through 2025 to 2026.
The panel at the top of this page sets the next 7 nights at Little Rock against the normal low for each date and adds the Climate Prediction Center outlook for the two weeks after. Enter a ZIP for your own town; it uses the nearest of the 4 Arkansas reference stations.
At Little Rock it is usually Jan 11 to 17, with a normal low of 31°F. At the other reference stations: Fayetteville Jan 13 to 19 (25°F), Fort Smith Jan 12 to 18 (29°F) and Jonesboro Jan 15 to 21 (30°F). These are NOAA's 1991 to 2020 daily normals.
The normal low at Little Rock reaches 32°F around Dec 25. The first actual freeze came around Nov 10 in the median of the last 10 winters, weeks ahead of the normal, because one clear calm night can run far below the average.
The coldest night of the last 10 winters at Little Rock was −1°F on Feb 16, 2021, and the coldest night of a typical winter there was 11°F. Elsewhere: Fayetteville −20°F on Feb 16, 2021, Fort Smith −8°F on Feb 16, 2021 and Jonesboro −2°F on Feb 16, 2021. The record at the Little Rock station is −5°F, on Feb 2, 1951, in daily records since 1938.
At Little Rock a typical recent winter brings 48 nights at 32°F or colder and 7 at 20°F or colder, the median of the last 10 seasons.
Each night's forecast low is compared with the NOAA normal low for that date at the nearest reference station. A night 20 or more degrees below normal is an arctic blast, and so is a night below zero where the normal low is 10°F or warmer. A night 10 to 19 below is a cold snap. A night 5 or more below, or a week that runs 3 or more below on average, is colder than normal, and a week 5 or more above is mild.
The normal lows and coldest weeks are NOAA's 1991 to 2020 daily climate normals for Little Rock Airport Adams Field (USW00013963), Fayetteville Drake Field (USW00093993), Fort Smith Regional Airport (USW00013964) and Jonesboro Municipal Airport (USW00003953). The recent winters, first dates and records come from the same stations' daily lows in NOAA's GHCN-Daily archive, the winters of 2016 to 2017 through 2025 to 2026. The 7 night forecast is the National Weather Service's and the outlook is the Climate Prediction Center's.
