Cold Snap Forecast for Vermont: The Next Arctic Blast
In Burlington the coldest week is usually Jan 24 to 30, with a normal low of 12°F, and the coldest night of the last 10 winters was −20°F on Jan 7, 2018.
Reading the National Weather Service forecast for Burlington.
Normals and records at Burlington International Airport
Coldest week
Jan 24 to 30Normal low 12°F
Coldest night, last 10 winters
−20°FJan 7, 2018
First freeze
Oct 17Median of 10 winters
Record low
−30°FTwice, last on Feb 12, 1979 (records since 1940)
The week with the lowest normal low at each reference station, from NOAA’s 1991 to 2020 normals, beside the coldest night of the last 10 winters, the median first freeze and the record low.
The coldest week and the coldest nights at Vermont reference stations
Station
Coldest week
Normal low
Coldest night, last 10 winters
First freeze
Record low
BurlingtonBurlington International Airport, USW00014742
Jan 24 to 30
12°F
−20°FJan 7, 2018
Oct 17
−30°FTwice, last on Feb 12, 1979records since 1940
The panel at the top of this page sets the next 7 nights at Burlington against the normal low for each date and adds the Climate Prediction Center outlook for the two weeks after. Enter a ZIP for your own town; it uses the nearest of the 3 Vermont reference stations.
At Burlington it is usually Jan 24 to 30, with a normal low of 12°F. At the other reference stations: Barre Montpelier Jan 23 to 29 (6°F) and St. Johnsbury Jan 26 to Feb 1 (6°F). These are NOAA's 1991 to 2020 daily normals.
The normal low at Burlington reaches 32°F around Nov 17 and 20°F around Dec 20. The first actual freeze came around Oct 17 in the median of the last 10 winters, weeks ahead of the normal, because one clear calm night can run far below the average.
The coldest night of the last 10 winters at Burlington was −20°F on Jan 7, 2018, and the coldest night of a typical winter there was −11°F. Elsewhere: Barre Montpelier −24°F on Jan 2, 2018 and St. Johnsbury −27°F on Jan 2, 2018 (9 winters on record). The record at the Burlington station is −30°F, most recently on Feb 12, 1979, in daily records since 1940.
At Burlington a typical recent winter brings 132 nights at 32°F or colder, 61 at 20°F or colder and 9 at zero or colder, the median of the last 10 seasons.
Each night's forecast low is compared with the NOAA normal low for that date at the nearest reference station. A night 20 or more degrees below normal is an arctic blast, and so is a night below zero where the normal low is 10°F or warmer. A night 10 to 19 below is a cold snap. A night 5 or more below, or a week that runs 3 or more below on average, is colder than normal, and a week 5 or more above is mild.
The normal lows and coldest weeks are NOAA's 1991 to 2020 daily climate normals for Burlington International Airport (USW00014742), Barre Montpelier Airport (USW00094705) and Saint Johnsbury (USW00054742). The recent winters, first dates and records come from the same stations' daily lows in NOAA's GHCN-Daily archive, the winters of 2016 to 2017 through 2025 to 2026. The 7 night forecast is the National Weather Service's and the outlook is the Climate Prediction Center's.
