Patterson, New York, 3,727 students in 5 schools

Carmel Central School District Snow Day Predictor

Q: How much snow does Patterson get?

About 37.6 inches a winter at a NOAA weather station 3.5 miles away, averaged over 9 winters. Between December 1 and March 31 that brings 4.8 weekday mornings a year with 2 inches of new snow or more, and 2 with 4 inches or more.

Q: What was the biggest snow day near Carmel?

15 inches on March 8, 2018, the largest single day at a NOAA weather station 3.5 miles away in 9 winters. The snowiest winter was 2017 to 2018, with 72.1 inches.

Q: How does the Carmel snow day predictor work?

It reads the National Weather Service forecast for Patterson through the night and the 5 to 8 am bus run, adds winter alerts and the Winter Storm Severity Index, and measures the snow against Carmel’s own big snow morning: 4.7 inches, the top tenth of snowy weekday mornings at a NOAA weather station 3.5 miles away.

Q: Can New York schools hold a remote day instead?

A district that would otherwise close for a storm may stay in session remotely under its emergency remote instruction plan, and that day counts toward the 180 days and the hours; districts are not required to do it.

The odds of a closing or a delay on the next three school mornings in Carmel, measured against Carmel's own big snow morning of 4.7 inches.

The next three school mornings

Will Carmel close tomorrow?

Reading the National Weather Service forecast for the overnight and the bus hours in Patterson.

Ten winters of school mornings

Carmel’s snow record

37.6inches of snow a winter

4.8school mornings a winter with 2 in of new snow or more

2with 4 in or more

4.7 ina big snow morning in Carmel: the top tenth of snowy school mornings

2school mornings a winter at 0 F or colder

1Nov

6.4Dec

8.6Jan

12.3Feb

8.6Mar

Average snowfall by month, inches

Biggest day 15 in on March 8, 2018
Snowiest winter 2017 to 2018, 72.1 in
6 in mornings 1.3 a winter
1 in mornings 6.8 a winter

Measured at a NOAA weather station 3.5 miles away. Mornings are the 7 am snow reading on a weekday from December 1 through March 31, over the ten winters from 2016 to 2017 through 2025 to 2026, from NOAA GHCN Daily.

The New York rule

How New York counts a lost day

New York requires 180 days of session plus 900 hours a year for kindergarten to grade 6 and 990 hours for grades 7 to 12. The Commissioner can excuse up to 5 days closed for extraordinary weather, but only if the district cannot make them up by using all its scheduled vacation days before the June Regents exams.

The New York rules in the agency’s own words, and every New York district

Next door

Districts near Carmel

District	Snow a winter	4 in mornings	Built in days
Pawling Central School DistrictPawling	37.6 in	2
Brewster Central School DistrictBrewster	37.6 in	2
Wappingers Central School DistrictHopewell Junction	30.6 in	1.3	4
Dover Union Free School DistrictDover Plains	44.6 in	2.1
Mahopac Central School DistrictMahopac	28.3 in	1.6
Somers Central School DistrictSomers	29.2 in	1.4

The schools

5 schools

Every school in Carmel follows the district’s call: one closing covers them all.

High

Carmel High School, Carmel

Middle

George Fischer Middle School, Carmel

Elementary

Matthew Paterson Elementary School
Kent Elementary School, Carmel
Kent Primary School, Carmel

Questions

Carmel snow day questions

How much snow does Patterson get?

What was the biggest snow day near Carmel?

How does the Carmel snow day predictor work?

How does New York handle snow days?

Can New York schools hold a remote day instead?

More winter

More for New York snow days

Snow day predictorClosing and delay odds for any ZIP, with the snowiest districts in the country.Snow depth mapHow much snow is on the ground right now, measured, across the country.First snow datesWhen the first measurable snow usually lands where you live.Frozen pipesThe nights cold enough to freeze a pipe, and what to do before one.Snow plow trackerWhere the plows are during a storm, city by city.New York winter forecastThe season ahead for New York: snowfall, cold and the first snow.

A residential street under deep snow on a bright blue morning, cars parked along the curb buried into smooth white mounds, one set of tire tracks down the middle — The morning after a big one: cars buried to the mirrors and one set of tracks down the middle. A street like this is a closing, no debate. Photo, Fairfax, Virginia, January 2016: Jarek Tuszyński, CC BY 4.0

The odds are a forecast read, and the superintendent makes the call: the district’s own announcement is the one to follow.