Lancaster, Pennsylvania, 3,907 students in 6 schools

Conestoga Valley School District Snow Day Predictor

Q: How much snow does Lancaster get?

About 18.5 inches a winter at a NOAA weather station 2.8 miles away, averaged over 10 winters. Between December 1 and March 31 that brings 1.9 weekday mornings a year with 2 inches of new snow or more, and 0.6 with 4 inches or more.

Q: What was the biggest snow day near Conestoga Valley?

9 inches on March 21, 2018, the largest single day at a NOAA weather station 2.8 miles away in 10 winters. The snowiest winter was 2018 to 2019, with 36.6 inches.

Q: How does the Conestoga Valley snow day predictor work?

It reads the National Weather Service forecast for Lancaster through the night and the 5 to 8 am bus run, adds winter alerts and the Winter Storm Severity Index, and measures the snow against Conestoga Valley’s own big snow morning: 4.2 inches, the top tenth of snowy weekday mornings at a NOAA weather station 2.8 miles away.

Q: Can Pennsylvania schools hold a remote day instead?

A district with a PDE accepted plan can turn up to five closure days a year, including snow days, into Flexible Instructional Days that count as school days; they can be online, offline or both.

The odds of a closing or a delay on the next three school mornings in Conestoga Valley, measured against Conestoga Valley's own big snow morning of 4.2 inches.

The next three school mornings

Will Conestoga Valley close tomorrow?

Reading the National Weather Service forecast for the overnight and the bus hours in Lancaster.

Ten winters of school mornings

Conestoga Valley’s snow record

18.5inches of snow a winter

1.9school mornings a winter with 2 in of new snow or more

0.6with 4 in or more

4.2 ina big snow morning in Conestoga Valley: the top tenth of snowy school mornings

0.9school mornings a winter at 0 F or colder

0.9Nov

2.8Dec

5.1Jan

5.6Feb

3.9Mar

Average snowfall by month, inches

Biggest day 9 in on March 21, 2018
Snowiest winter 2018 to 2019, 36.6 in
6 in mornings 0.4 a winter
1 in mornings 2.9 a winter

Measured at a NOAA weather station 2.8 miles away. Mornings are the 7 am snow reading on a weekday from December 1 through March 31, over the ten winters from 2016 to 2017 through 2025 to 2026, from NOAA GHCN Daily.

The Pennsylvania rule

How Pennsylvania counts a lost day

Pennsylvania requires either 180 days, or hours: 900 for kindergarten through grade 6 and 990 for grades 7 to 12, as the district chooses. The state forgives no days; districts are expected to build make-up days into the calendar for closures beyond any Flexible Instructional Days.

The Pennsylvania rules in the agency’s own words, and every Pennsylvania district

Next door

Districts near Conestoga Valley

District	Snow a winter	4 in mornings
Lampeter-Strasburg School DistrictLancaster	18.5 in	0.6
Lancaster School DistrictLancaster	18.5 in	0.6
Manheim Township School DistrictLancaster	18.5 in	0.6
Penn Manor School DistrictMillersville	18.5 in	0.6
Pequea Valley School DistrictKinzers	23 in	0.9
Warwick School DistrictLititz	21.9 in	1.1

The schools

6 schools

Every school in Conestoga Valley follows the district’s call: one closing covers them all.

High

Conestoga Valley SHS

Middle

Gerald G Huesken MS

Elementary

Fritz El Sch
Smoketown El Sch
Brownstown El Sch, Brownstown
Leola El Sch, Leola

Questions

Conestoga Valley snow day questions

How much snow does Lancaster get?

What was the biggest snow day near Conestoga Valley?

How does the Conestoga Valley snow day predictor work?

How does Pennsylvania handle snow days?

Can Pennsylvania schools hold a remote day instead?

More winter

More for Pennsylvania snow days

Snow day predictorClosing and delay odds for any ZIP, with the snowiest districts in the country.Snow depth mapHow much snow is on the ground right now, measured, across the country.First snow datesWhen the first measurable snow usually lands where you live.Frozen pipesThe nights cold enough to freeze a pipe, and what to do before one.Snow plow trackerWhere the plows are during a storm, city by city.Pennsylvania winter forecastThe season ahead for Pennsylvania: snowfall, cold and the first snow.

A residential street under deep snow on a bright blue morning, cars parked along the curb buried into smooth white mounds, one set of tire tracks down the middle — The morning after a big one: cars buried to the mirrors and one set of tracks down the middle. A street like this is a closing, no debate. Photo, Fairfax, Virginia, January 2016: Jarek Tuszyński, CC BY 4.0

The odds are a forecast read, and the superintendent makes the call: the district’s own announcement is the one to follow.