Front Royal, Virginia, 5,129 students in 9 schools

Warren County Public Schools Snow Day Predictor

Q: How much snow does Front Royal get?

About 6.9 inches a winter at a NOAA weather station 1.4 miles away, averaged over 7 winters. Between December 1 and March 31 that brings 0.9 weekday mornings a year with 2 inches of new snow or more, and 0.3 with 4 inches or more.

Q: What was the biggest snow day near Warren?

8 inches on December 17, 2020, the largest single day at a NOAA weather station 1.4 miles away in 7 winters. The snowiest winter was 2020 to 2021, with 15.1 inches.

Q: How does the Warren snow day predictor work?

It reads the National Weather Service forecast for Front Royal through the night and the 5 to 8 am bus run, adds winter alerts and the Winter Storm Severity Index, and measures the snow against Warren’s own big snow morning: 5.6 inches, the top tenth of snowy weekday mornings at a NOAA weather station 1.4 miles away.

Q: Can Virginia schools hold a remote day instead?

A division can declare an unscheduled remote learning day when weather closes buildings, up to 10 a year unless the state superintendent extends it, without losing state aid.

The odds of a closing or a delay on the next three school mornings in Warren, measured against Warren's own big snow morning of 5.6 inches.

The next three school mornings

Will Warren close tomorrow?

Reading the National Weather Service forecast for the overnight and the bus hours in Front Royal.

Ten winters of school mornings

Warren’s snow record

6.9inches of snow a winter

0.9school mornings a winter with 2 in of new snow or more

0.3with 4 in or more

5.6 ina big snow morning in Warren: the top tenth of snowy school mornings

0.1school mornings a winter at 0 F or colder

0Nov

1.6Dec

3Jan

1.9Feb

0.4Mar

Average snowfall by month, inches

Biggest day 8 in on December 17, 2020
Snowiest winter 2020 to 2021, 15.1 in
6 in mornings 0.1 a winter
1 in mornings 1 a winter

Measured at a NOAA weather station 1.4 miles away. Mornings are the 7 am snow reading on a weekday from December 1 through March 31, over the ten winters from 2016 to 2017 through 2025 to 2026, from NOAA GHCN Daily.

The Virginia rule

How Virginia counts a lost day

Virginia requires at least 180 teaching days or 990 teaching hours, or state aid is reduced. After 5 closures, only one of every two further days must be made up; the Board of Education can also waive make-up when every reasonable effort is exhausted.

The Virginia rules in the agency’s own words, and every Virginia district

Next door

Districts near Warren

District	Snow a winter	4 in mornings
Shenandoah County Public SchoolsWoodstock	14.3 in	0.7
Frederick County Public SchoolsWinchester	9.9 in	0.4
Winchester City Public SchoolsWinchester	9.9 in	0.4
Page County Public SchoolsLuray	11.4 in	0.9
Fauquier County Public SchoolsWarrenton	10 in	0.3
Culpeper County Public SchoolsCulpeper	10 in	0.3

The schools

9 schools

Every school in Warren follows the district’s call: one closing covers them all.

High

Skyline High
Warren County High

Middle

Skyline Middle
Warren County Middle

Elementary

Ressie Jeffries Elementary
Leslie Fox Keyser Elementary
Hilda J. Barbour Elementary
E. Wilson Morrison Elementary
A.S. Rhodes Elementary

Questions

Warren snow day questions

How much snow does Front Royal get?

What was the biggest snow day near Warren?

How does the Warren snow day predictor work?

How does Virginia handle snow days?

Can Virginia schools hold a remote day instead?

More winter

More for Virginia snow days

Snow day predictorClosing and delay odds for any ZIP, with the snowiest districts in the country.Snow depth mapHow much snow is on the ground right now, measured, across the country.First snow datesWhen the first measurable snow usually lands where you live.Frozen pipesThe nights cold enough to freeze a pipe, and what to do before one.Snow plow trackerWhere the plows are during a storm, city by city.Virginia winter forecastThe season ahead for Virginia: snowfall, cold and the first snow.

A residential street under deep snow on a bright blue morning, cars parked along the curb buried into smooth white mounds, one set of tire tracks down the middle — The morning after a big one: cars buried to the mirrors and one set of tracks down the middle. A street like this is a closing, no debate. Photo, Fairfax, Virginia, January 2016: Jarek Tuszyński, CC BY 4.0

The odds are a forecast read, and the superintendent makes the call: the district’s own announcement is the one to follow.